Serbia v Wales
Sunday 19:45 
Live on Sky Sports 1

Serbia 

There's been no shortage of talented Serbian players over the past few years but there have been plenty of other problems. From Nemanja Vidic's premature retirement to a famous match against Albania that resulted in a points deduction, fine and Serbia having to play behind closed doors after a strange incident involving a drone, an Albanian flag and other on and off the field unsavoury incidents.

But they've certainly got their act together for this campaign and are top of the group on goal difference with 11 points after five games and a positive goal difference of +6 to Republic of Ireland's + 4.

Their main men have been two names that are well-known to fans of English football. Southampton's Dusan Tadic is their joint top-scorer with four goals and a further seven assists and Newcastle's Aleksandar Mitrovic, reportedly about a seal a move away from the north east, also has four. Former Chelsea man Branislav Ivanovic, current Blues midfield anchor Nemanja Matic and Man City's Aleksandar Kolarov are all also expected to feature.

Wales 

It's virtually impossible to start a preview of a Wales match without discussing whether Gareth Bale is in form, fit or motivated. He's none of those. He's suspended after picking up a booking against the Republic of Ireland in that infamous match that also saw Seamus Coleman break his leg and Neil Taylor rightfully sent off for the atrocious tackle that led to the season-ending injury. He's obviously suspended, too.

James Collins, Hal Robson-Kanu and Andy King are out injured. With all due respect to Wales, when there aren't exactly a huge number of international class players to choose from, that's probably a few absences too many.

Ian Rush said this week that Wales need a Plan B and that another hero has to emerge in the absence of their superstar Bale. All well and good but that's easier said than done. Bale hasn't missed a competitive match for Wales since 2013 and has been at the heart of everything they've achieved over the past few years. He's also central to their overall gameplan. It won't be easy and defeat here will leave them miles off the pace as regards qualification.

Match Odds and Over/Under 2.5 goals

You'll see worse 1.75 shots than Serbia in the world of sport this week. Serbia have been better this campaign and crucially, have never lost to the Welsh. Over 10 games between the two, they've beaten them six times and drawn four and scored 24 goals to Wales' 11. One of those matches was a 6-1 win that Chris Coleman suggested was a turning point in both his and Wales' fortunes because he says it was the moment he decided to start doing things his way rather than trying to carry on doing what the late, great Gary Speed had started.

Add to that the fact that as hinted, Wales will have to re-think their attacking strategy without the Real Madrid man and that looks a pretty decent price indeed.

But then again, anyone can tell you that. The even better bet might be to push the boat out and go for the home win alongside over 2.5 goals in the match. That combination would have paid out in two of their last three qualifiers- a 3-1 win over Georgia and a 3-2 win over Austria. Yes, I suppose the absence of Bale makes it more unlikely that Wales get one but since the start of Euro 2016 they've scored at least once in 9 of their 11 matches so it's not that far-fetched. It's 21/10 and a good alternative to the straightforward home win.

Sending off?

If you fancy a slightly speculative bet, you could do worse than going for a sending off here. There has admittedly been just one across both sides this campaign- that Neil Taylor one- but Wales have been a somewhat fiery side over the last couple of years or so and Serbia have been no strangers to the odd red card in the past, either. In their final qualification match of the Euro 2016 campaign they lost two players- Kolarov and Matic- to red cards. There may also be a slight sense of revenge after that 6-1 drubbing from a couple of years ago so you never know if someone out there loses their head.

Recommended Bets

1pt Back Serbia to win + over 2.5 goals @ 21/10 on Betfair Sportsbook
1pt Back a sending off @ 3.50 or better


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