Bundesliga Betting: Nagelsmann's boys to get back on track

Hoffenheim v Stuttgart
Wednesday December 13, 17:30
Live on Betfair Live Video and BT Sport 3

Given that this is his third season as a Bundesliga coach, it's easy to forget that Hoffenheim's Julian Nagelsmann is still only 30, and still on a learning curve. The club's first season in European competition was a humbling experience - Hoffe were beaten home and away by Liverpool in the Champions League qualifiers, and even though they had the lead in five of their six Europa League games, they only won once.

However, it's worth bearing in mind that despite enduring an extra European workload and losing key players Niklas Sule and Sebastian Rudy to Bayern Munich, Hoffe have stayed in touch with the top four. They smashed RB Leipzig 4-0 in their most recent Bundesliga home game, and despite losing 2-0 at Hannover on Sunday, they are still just two points off the Champions League spots.

A southern derby against Stuttgart is just what Hoffenheim need, simply because the newly-promoted Swabians have really struggled on their travels. 16 of VfB's 17 Bundesliga points have been collected at their Mercedes-Benz Arena, and they suffered their first home defeat of 2017 on Friday, as they lost to Bayer Leverkusen. It was an undeserved defeat, as Bayer keeper Bernd Leno admitted afterwards that he'd had the game of his life, but it left Hannes Wolf's team just two points above the bottom three.

Hoffenheim aren't in great form in general, but that resounding win over Leipzig and the dreadful away form of Stuttgart (seven defeats in eight games) makes me think that 1.89is a good price for the home win.

Recommended Bet
Back Hoffenheim to win at 1.89

Bayern Munich v FC Koln
Wednesday December 13, 19:30
Live on Betfair Live Video and BT Sport 3

You'd have had to have a heart of stone (or be a Gladbach or Leverkusen fan) not to feel for FC Koln and their supporters on Sunday. In conditions more suited to fighting the Night King and his armies than playing football, Koln led 3-0 against Freiburg, only to somehow contrive to lose 4-3 with virtually the last kick of the game.

With just three points collected from 14 games, no wins and an injury crisis to rival any other in the Bundesliga right now, interim coach Stefan Ruthenbeck and his assistant Kevin McKenna face an incredibly difficult job.

That job won't get any easier, as Koln visit the champions and runaway leaders Bayern Munich on Wednesday. Bayern have rarely been at their brilliant best this season, but they have still built an eight-point lead at the top, and the return of Jupp Heynckes to the dugout has reunited a fractured squad and given Bayern their ruthless edge back.

I don't normally like to put up a price of under 1.75, but on this occasion I'll make an exception, because 1.72 to back Bayern -2 on the Handicap on the Sportsbook seems overpriced to me. Koln seem to be struggling for fitness, and even if they try to dig in here, Bayern will break them down eventually.

Recommended Bet
Back Bayern Munich -2 on the Handicap at 1.72 (Sportsbook)

Wolfsburg v RB Leipzig
Tuesday December 12, 19:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

RB Leipzig's title push faltered on Saturday, as coach Ralph Hasenhuttl tried to rotate his squad, and it backfired in a 2-2 draw against Mainz. Naby Keita was still sat on the bench when Mainz grabbed a late but deserved equaliser, and the team seems to be badly missing the drive and skill of injured attacking midfielder Marcel Sabitzer.

It's been a bad week for Leipzig, that started with a 4-0 hammering at Hoffenheim, continued with a Champions League defeat to Besiktas, and then concluded with the concession of two points in a game they twice led.

Leipzig have only taken a point from their last three Bundesliga away games, and they face a stiff challenge away to a Wolfsburg side that has lost just once since Martin Schmidt took the reins. The Wolves are playing with far more energy and structure these days, and they played Borussia Monchengladbach off the park in their last home game. Daniel Didavi and Yunus Malli were superb in attack, and were backed up by robust defensive play in midfield and the back four.

Wolfsburg have scored three goals in each of their last three home matches, and they are chasing a third straight home win. At 3.10 for the win, they seem overpriced, so back them with a bit of insurance.

Recommended Bet
Back Wolfsburg Draw No Bet at 2.30