Arsenal v Newcastle: Run-of-the-mill home win looks likely

Arsenal v Newcastle
Saturday December 16 15:00

Consistently inconsistent Gunners

Arsenal are fun to watch for the neutral but one of the most challenging sides to have to write about in a betting preview.

That's because rather like with a mercurial batsman, you never quite know if they're in form or not. One day they're winning the north London derby, another they're grinding out a priceless but albeit somewhat fortunate win at Burnley and that was followed by an unfortunate defeat at home to Manchester United. In their last two games they picked up just two points after draws at Southampton and West Ham despite starting both as strong favourites.

The result is that they're in seventh place, one below Burnley. After all those years ago of finishing in the Top 4 without fail, it's now looking a possibility that they miss out for a second season in a row with the Betfair Top 4 Finish market having them out at 2.72.

Aaron Ramsey, who most certainly was in form before picking up a hamstring injury may be sidelined once again, while Shkodran Mustafi is also rated doubtful.

Misfiring strikers help to explain awful form

Rafa Benitez would love have to have some of Arsene Wenger's problems, where a draw is considered a disappointment. They're officially in the worst form of anyone in the division, with just one point from their last eight games, as Opta tell us.

They can consider themselves lucky that relatively established Premier League sides like Crystal Palace, Swansea and West Ham have been so poor up to now or they could easily be a lot shorter than the 3.30 they are for the drop.

The Spanish manager will see a striker with a proven record of scoring in this division as a priority in the January transfer window. He may have four forwards in his squad- Dwight Gayle, Joselu, Ayoze Perez and Aleksandar Mitrovic - but with just eight goals between them, that's not going to cut it.

Market not giving anything away on hosts

When you're this badly out of form, you certainly don't want to be playing a team that has won the last nine games (Opta) you've faced them. But that's the reality facing Newcastle. Only against Manchester City between 1994 and 2004 did Arsenal win more (11) games in a row against anyone.

The market is wise to that head-to-head record because 1.29 is as good as you're going to get on another home win, with the draw at 6.20. If you're going to take a real punt and go with Newcastle to win at 13.50, there's one thing going for you. Their last victory at the Emirates was back in 2010 when they were a newly-promoted side, just like they are now.

Standard home win a real possibility

In truth, Arsenal can be somewhat excused for those two draws. Southampton are normally hard to beat at home while West Ham instantly look more resilient under David Moyes and were fresh from beating Chelsea at the weekend before Wednesday's goalless draw.

Besides, Wenger's boys have been far better at home all season. They've won every match there bar that reverse against Man Utd and of those seven wins, five were without conceding.

Three of those were via a 2-0 scoreline and that looks about right here. Their record this season and against Newcastle in general suggests they're more than capable of keeping a clean sheet here but then again, it's unlikely the floodgates will open. 2-0 is very fairly-priced at 6/1 on Betfair Sportsbook.

A tale of two Frenchmen

Olivier Giroud picked the wrong game to have a bit of an off day. Recalled to the starting line-up against West Ham after scoring at Southampton, he drew a blank and may lose out to Alexander Lacazette for this one. It would be a shame for him if that happened because Giroud loves playing Newcastle, scoring more goals against them (eight) than against anyone else.

He's 4/6 to score but the better bet might be to go with him to score first at 11/4. That way your bet would be void if he didn't start and someone else scored first, whereas it would stand if he only got 10 or 15 minutes at the end.

The other player with an excellent scoring record in this match is Laurent Koscielny, who scored in three of his last seven against Saturday's visitors. Surprisingly, he's yet to score this season but he's never failed to score less than two goals in a Premier League campaign so he might be due. He's available at 8/1 and could be worth a small punt.

Ref Watch

Stuart Atwell has shown 38 yellows from 12 matches this season and one red. But this game has a bit of a history of producing reds with four from the last 12 seeing a player take an early bath.

Recommended Bets
1pt Back Arsenal to win 2-0 with Betfair Sportsbook @ 6/1 
0.5pts Back Laurent Koscielny to score @ 8/1