Southampton v Leicester: Mahrez to help Foxes get at least a point

Southampton v Leicester 
Wednesday, 19:45

Austin doing what Austin does best

The Saints earned themselves a good point on Sunday with the in-form Arsenal needing a late equaliser from Olivier Giroud to get anything out of the game at all. It's been an inconsistent season for Southampton and Mauricio Pellegrini could be forgiven for being a little worried about his position.

Claude Puel- who of course will be in the opposition dugout- was dismissed at the end of last season despite actually having a higher points per game tally (1.21) than Pellegrini has now, as Opta tell us.

At least the manager has realised that what Charlie Austin may lack in finesse, he more than makes up for in efficiency. He opened the scoring on Sunday and now has five for the season- more than anyone else in the squad- despite playing far less minutes than the likes of Marco Gabbiadini and Shane Long.

Dusan Tadic provided the assist for that goal and with it, the Serb moved into second place for most assists (26 of them) for the club in the Premier League (Opta). He's got a long way to go to catch the great Matt Le Tissier, though, who set up 64 goals.

Puel's got Mahrez in the mood

Are the Saints decision-makers regretting their decision to sack Puel? Maybe but then again, Leicester are playing better under the Frenchman than Southampton ever did when he was there so maybe this is just a better match.

Puel is looking to win four games in a row for the first time since doing so at Nice in October 2015. They beat Tottenham (2-1), Burnley (1-0) and Newcastle (3-2) and though there was an element of fortune about the winner up in Newcastle, there certainly wasn't any fortune involved in Riyad Mahrez's goal. The now bleach-blonde Algerian is definitely back to his best, directly involved in eight goals so far this season (four goals, four assists), just one fewer than he managed in the whole of last season.

Saints far too short

Southampton have lost at home to Leicester just once in the Premier League in the last 11 times they hosted them. That can be the only reason I can think of for Southampton to be as short as 2.20. Leicester are five points above them in the table and in much better form.

It would certainly go against the grain for Leicester to go on and win (3.90) given that historical head-to-head record but it's certainly not out of the question. Cover both those options by laying the hosts.

Take your pick on the over/under 2.5 goals market

It's a pick'em market as they say. Unders and overs are both trading at even money.Statistically speaking, you should go with unders if playing this market. 50% of Leicester's away games have had under 2.5 goals this season but the number goes up to 66.7% when looking at the Saints' home games.

But it's not enough of an edge to go and have a bet.

Mahrez the best value goalscorer selection

If you do believe the match will have goals, there are some decent options in the anytime goalscorer market. Charlie Austin is almost certain to get another start here and is the sort of player to strike while the iron is hot. 2/1 is a decent price on the team's main striker up against a side with just two clean sheets in their last 10.

The ever-dangerous Jamie Vardy is 17/10 but he's actually gone off the boil a bit out of late. Including a couple of appearances for England, he has just one goal in his last eight.

Demarai Gray is clearly enjoying life under Puel, too. Having scored just once in his first 50 Premier League games, he's now scored three in his last seven. He's 7/2 but at the same price you can back Mahrez. The Algerian is a far more prolific scorer and could well be up for this.

Kavanagh in charge

You're as likely to find Chris Kavanagh in charge of Championship matches as Premier League ones. But he's relatively lenient wherever he's the man in the middle, averaging three yellows a game and having shown one red in 12 matches this campaign. These aren't amongst the more indisciplined sides so don't expect too many bookings here.

Recommended Bet

1pt Lay Southampton @ 2.20 
1pt Back Riyad Mahrez to score @ 7/2