West Ham v Arsenal: Hammers can continue steady improvement

West Ham v Arsenal
Wednesday December 12, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 1

West Ham looking to find some rare consistency

It doesn't reflect particularly well on David Moyes that he is setting an unwanted record this week. He is taking charge of a match involving a team in the Premier League dropzone for the 42nd time in a row, a longer run than any other manager.

However, Moyes can legitimately argue that he is having a positive effect. A brave effort in a 2-1 defeat at Manchester City was an encouraging step forward, and Saturday's 1-0 win over Chelsea caught the eye. West Ham took an early lead, and managed to keep the champions at bay with a diligent display amidst a few heart-stopping moments.

However, the danger of the drop is still very real, and West Ham need to start stringing wins together if they are to survive. They haven't managed back-to-back Premier League victories since January, and they haven't managed consecutive home victories in the league since last December.

Moyes is likely to select that same team that beat Chelsea if injuries permit, which means England keeper Joe Hart will once again be on the bench. Adrian has excelled in the last two games, and Hart may be in a tricky situation with the World Cup fast approaching.

Gunners must once again address their fragility

For all of Arsene Wenger's protestations about Arsenal deserving more than they've been getting from their away games, it's getting increasingly difficult to ignore the evidence. The Gunners' narrow escape in Sunday's 1-1 draw at Southampton left the north London side with a record of just two wins in eight Premier League away matches this season.

For the second game running, Arsenal were guilty of a slow start at St Mary's. Southampton scored in the third minute through Charlie Austin, and could have had several more goals before Olivier Giroud popped up with an equaliser. Wenger admits his side were apprehensive after a dreadful start to the previous game against Manchester United.

At least Arsenal can take solace from their outstanding recent record in games against West Ham. Opta tell us they have lost just one of their last 18 Premier League meetings with the Hammers, they have won 12 times away to West Ham (their joint-best record against a PL side), and they haven't lost an away game at Upton Park or the London Stadium for just over 11 years.

Giroud may have earned a start after yet another late goal this season, while Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez are both expected to start.

Arsenal too short ahead of London derby

I thought Arsenal might be showing some rare steel after they dug out a fine 1-0 win at Burnley, but since then they have made abysmal starts to games against Manchester United and Southampton. They have won only a quarter of their away games in the Premier League this season, so can we really back them at 1.68 with any confidence?

I don't think we can. Yes, West Ham have glaring weaknesses, but they played really well against both Manchester City and Chelsea. Their injury problems are easing, and although I'm not convinced about Moyes being the right solution in the long term, he has at least given the side a short-term lift. The team is showing a bit more desire to excel, including Marko Arnautovic, who scored the winner against Chelsea. He's a maddeningly inconsistent player, but you can't deny his talent.

I'm laying Arsenal.

Unders may appeal if Moyes keeps it tight

Under 2.5 Goals is the outsider here at 2.28, and there is evidence to back up that bet. Three of Arsenal's last five Premier League games have featured fewer than three goals, including the last two on the road.

West Ham's last two home matches have ended 1-1 and 1-0, and three of David Moyes' games in charge have seen an Under 2.5 Goals bet land.

Recommended Bet
Lay Arsenal at 1.68