Burnley v Stoke: Clarets likely to pour more misery on Hughes

Burnley v Stoke City
Tuesday, 19:45

Top four within reach

Now within a point of the Champions League places, Burnley have a very real chance of breaking into the top four before the Christmas period. Tuesday's home game against Stoke and Saturday's away trip to Brighton represent two very winnable fixtures for a side that continue to re-write the script. What's even more impressive is that they've done it without the services of England goalkeeper Tom Heaton who remains side-lined with a shoulder injury.

Stand in stopper Nick Pope has performed admirably in his absence alongside a back four that have shipped just 12 goals so far this season, a record bettered only by both Manchester clubs. Going forward has been a slightly different story with just 15 goals scored. And while summer signing Chris Wood has certainly contributed, Sean Dyche may look to bring in further firepower in January if they're to maintain their stellar start to the season.

Hughes under pressure

Stoke, like Burnley, started the season so brightly with a win over Arsenal and a rousing 2-2 draw with Man Utd but since then it's anyone's guess as to which Stoke side will turn upeach week. They've mixed 7-2 defeats against Man City with hard fought victories away to Watford - no mean feat given the job Marco Silva has done.

They come into this fixture after a 5-1 hammering away to Spurs - the same Spurs that have struggled to put sides away at Wembley - and it could've been even worse were it not for Stoke keeper Jack Butland. Mark Hughes' side have now lost three of their last four and that aforementioned victory at Vicarage Road in October was the last time they've plundered three points away from the Potteries.

Following Tuesday night's game they come up against West Ham, West Brom and Huddersfield, a run of games that they simply have to take advantage of if they're to avoid ringing in the New Year in the relegation zone.

Potters defensive woes can gift Burnley win

The relative fortunes of these sides are fairly reflected in the market with Burnley 2.32favourites, Stoke 3.60 and The Draw at 3.30.

For all that Burnley have been somewhat goal-shy this season, Stoke have only scored on four more occasions and while praise should rightly be lavished on the Turf Moor rear-guard, Stoke have conceded 35 times, a league worst.

Xherdan Shaqiri has been Hughes' leading light but the Clarets back four have faced much trickier assignments so far this season and come out on top. Equally the likes of Diouf and Choupo-Moting shouldn't give them too much to worry about.

Much will depend on Chris Wood and Johann Gudmundsson's ability to unlock the Stoke back four given their relative woes in front of goal. But they should have enough between them to do so and 2.32 about Burnley is potentially a touch of value about a legitimate top six side.

Clarets can dominate but don't expect goals

Saturday's victory was Burnley's 25th by a single goal margin and a 1-0 victory on Tuesday night sits at 6/1 on the Betfair Sportsbook. Under 2.5 goals is 8/13 and while 75% of Stoke's games this season have gone Overs it's hard to envisage this being one of them.

A more interesting angle is perhaps that 81% have gone over 0.5 before half-time which is 8/15, as a result of that figure I'm also drawn to Burnley HT/FT which is 11/4 on the Sportsbook.

Recommended Bets
Back Burnley to win at 2.32
Back Burnley HT/FT @ 11/4