A-League Tips Round 11

Sydney FC v Melbourne City – (Fri 7:50pm)If there was any debate over who is the best football side in the nation Sydney FC put that to rest in the Sydney Derby. The 5-0 win over the Wanderers was the biggest in derby history and it could have been more! It was the Mierzejewski show and the scary part for the rest of the league is that they did it without the reigning Johnny Warren Medalist – Milos Ninkovic. City face a monumental task at Allianz Stadium on Friday night and have now lost their last 4 encounters with the Sky Blues. Back to back wins for City have them sitting in 3rd and they have shifted their focus back to defence after having conceded 3 goals in consecutive matched against the Roar and Glory. The problem for the visitors according to The Wolf – they don’t have the creativity in attack to trouble the league leaders. They have managed just 13 goals in 10 A-League matches and have scored just the one goal their last 4 encounters with Sydney. Graham Arnold’s side are on a roll and unless City can strike from a set piece they will not be finding the back of the net. Sydney to extend their current win streak in the league to 5 and maintain their 3rd consecutive clean sheet.
Best Bet: Sydney FC WIN ($1.66)
Value Bet: Teams To Score – Sydney FC Only ($2.70)

Newcastle v Adelaide – (Sat 5:35pm)
The Jets ability to find the back of the net consistently earned them yet another win, this time in Perth. Two goals in the final two minutes gave them an unlikely 3 points but it evidence that Eddie Merrick’s side is for real. The formula is simple for the Jets and they continue to rely on their speed out wide. They are relentless in attack and are the only team in the A-League to have found the back of the net in every game! The betting trends are also there to be seen. Over 2.5 goals is 9-1 on the season as is both teams to score. O’Donovan is set to return to the starting lineup after having come off the bench in Perth which will allow Petratos and Nabbout to return to their roles as wingers where they have been most dangerous. Adelaide are coming off a win over the Victory but it came at a price with Garuccio and Adlung both being sent from the field in the closing stages. It leaves the Reds left hand side of defence exposed and that is bad news with Petratos having several man of the match performances playing on the right win this season. The Jets to maintain second spot on the ladder.
Best Bet: Newcastle WIN ($1.95)
Value Bet: Over 3.5 goals ($3.00)

Central Coast v Western Sydney – (Sat 7:50pm)It’s been a rough start to say the least for Josep Gombau’s tenure at the Wanderers. It is one thing to lose 3 games in a row, failing to score in any of them, and it is another all together to be on the receiving end of a 5-0 thumping in the Sydney Derby. Gombau took responsibility for the defeat and is adamant that it is all a process. He is clearly unhappy with the roster that he has inherited and reports surfaced that the club intend to make offers to the Sydney FC trio of Bujis, Wilkinson and Zullo. It is hardly something you want to be doing leading into a Derby and they paid the ultimate price. The Mariners went down to a solitary City goal last week but The Wolf says the outlook ahead is very bright for Paul Okon’s men. They have conceded just 4 goals in their last 6 A-League matches and have a settled squad thanks to a lack of injuries. There is a real sense of belief in the Mariners camp and it will translate to yet another fast start at home. The Mariners have been the first team to score in each of their 5 games at Central Coast Stadium this season and if they can get their noses in front at any point The Wolf has them winning.
Best Bet: Central Coast WIN ($2.60)
Value Bet: Teams To Score – Central Coast Only ($5.00)

Perth v Wellington – (Sat 10:00pm)
Wellington’s only win this season came against the Glory in a 5-2 thriller and The Wolf says we could see just as many goals at nib Stadium. The 0-0 draw between the Roar and Phoenix last week was a complete anomaly and The Wolf is not about to buy into any notion that the Nix have all of a sudden learned how to defend. There have been 5 or more goals scored in 6 of their last 10 A-League matches and they have conceded at least twice in 7 of those matches. The Glory have one of the largest injury lists in the league. They will be without Keogh and Taggart but Castro came off the bench last week and should be back to full fitness. Perth to explode in the second half.
Best Bet: Over 4.5 goals ($4.25)
Value Bet: 2nd Half Perth Goals 3+ ($9.50)

Brisbane v Melbourne Victory – (Sun 7:00pm)They are two of the most successful clubs in A-League history but there can be no hiding their early season struggles. The Victory have tried to play themselves out of the slump with limited success while Aloisi has turned to defence with so many key players missing. The absence of Jade North and DeVere leaves them short handed at the back but The Wolf says the loss of Kristensen in holding midfield is the most significant. Likewise Melbourne will be without their holder, Milligan, who went off injured against Adelaide. In terms of pace and tempo the Roar are arguably the slowest in the league. It is a key reason why they have been restricted to less than 2 goals in 7 of their 10 matches this season. Melbourne have earned 8 of their 10 points on the road this season, losing just 1 of their 5 away games, and The Wolf says they are more than capable of grabbing all 3 points. There has been no more than  a single goal between them in the last 7 meetings and that trend will continue. Berisha has scored in 3 of his last 4 against his former club and will grab the winner in a 1-0 win.
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($2.25)
Value Bet: Melbourne 1-0 ($11.00)

Best Bets Round 11

Best Bet: Newcastle WIN ($1.95)
Best Value Bet: Teams To Score – Central Coast Only ($5.00)