Chelsea v Southampton: Expect a businesslike Blues win

Chelsea v Southampton
Saturday, 15:00

Hosts could profit over Christmas

The title may be beyond them now - it's surely beyond any of the chasing pack given Manchester City's brilliance - but Chelsea will nonetheless have been pleased to return to winning ways against Huddersfield. The defeat to West Ham on Saturday had frustrated the Blues, but they were back to something resembling their best on Tuesday night, swatting the Terriers aside with little fuss.

The fixture list is inviting for Antonio Conte over the festive period: three of Chelsea's four remaining games in 2017 are at Stamford Bridge, against fairly fragile opposition. Brighton and Stoke visit just after Christmas, but first up are Southampton, fresh from a clobbering by Leicester City. It would be no huge surprise if Conte's charges find a way past Manchester United by the new year.

Álvaro Morata missed the Huddersfield game with a back problem and remains a doubt at time of writing. Even if he does miss out, Chelsea still have plenty of firepower, with Willianand Pedro both having notched at The John Smith's Stadium. Cesc Fàbregas and Gary Cahill could also be in line for returns if Conte wants to freshen up his XI.

Saints going nowhere fast

Ex marked the spot for Southampton on Wednesday night, with Claude Puel returning to silence St Mary's. It was a dreadful night for Saints, who defended like schoolchildren, and you would have forgiven Puel for feeling a pang of Schadenfreude given the way he was bundled out of the club in the summer after a League Cup final and an eighth-placed finish.

His replacement, Mauricio Pellegrino, is struggling to find his feet on the south coast. There have been moments of promise - the 4-1 success over Everton, a gutsy display against Man City - but they have been spread too thinly: Saints have now won just two of their last 12 Premier League matches.

Pellegrino named an attacking XI against the Foxes, Charlie Austin leading the line from Sofiane Boufal and Dušan Tadić. A repeat is unlikely given how exposed that left the defence, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see a reprise for the 4-5-1 system employed at the Etihad at the end of November.

Businesslike Blues should get job done

Chelsea have been in impressive form at Stamford Bridge: since being turned over by Burnley on opening weekend, only Manchester City have won there. The Blues have won their last four home league games, plus their last three meetings with Southampton, and look very solid favourites at 1.39.

Yet the likelihood that Saints will tighten up, coupled with the fact that Chelsea have rarely dished out thrashings this term - nine of their 11 wins in all competitions have been by one or two goals - gives us a more attractive betting angle. Dutching the hosts to win by one or two goals on the Sportsbook's Match Result Handicap Markets yields a price of 1.91.

Goals may not flow

Southampton have kept one clean sheet in their last 24 Premier League games against Chelsea, suggesting they will have a hard time shutting their hosts out on Saturday. Still, this looks more likely to be a battle of attrition than a goal fest: just 38% of Chelsea's home league games have gone over the 2.5-goal mark, and the figure for Saints away games is 43%.

The absence of Morata would reduce Chelsea's goal threat a touch, so odds of 2.20 on the unders could be worth considering.

Hazard the one to watch

Eden Hazard did everything but score against Huddersfield and usually enjoys himself against Southampton: the Belgian schemer has been involved in seven goals in 10 starts against Saints in all competitions (four goals, three assists). He is 2.02 for an anytime goal.

Recommended Bet
Dutch back Chelsea one-goal and two-goal wins at 1.91