FA Cup Betting: Ardley's Wimbledon can beat injury-hit Addicks

AFC Fylde 8.20 v Wigan Athletic 1.41, the draw 5.00

Friday, 19:55
Live on BBC Two

My first round FA Cup tipsheet included two non-league teams against third tier sides; and whilst Chorley really made Fleetwood work hard to lose out to a last minute goal (a late blow again for an Under 2.5 bet finishing 1-2), the MK Dons victory against Hyde was a complete non-event for a bet as the Buckinghamshire outfit coasted to a win.

I laid the Dons at a very short 1.25 for that game, and we have a similar sort of price for the best team in League One at 1.41. On that basis they are a bet, but I really cannot be tipping at those short numbers here - it's one for weekend accas and those that hit the shorties. I don't think I'll be going Draw No Bet on Wigan, put it that way. And I certainly won't be laying them.

Don't get me wrong, I think the National League is a tough division with plenty of hard sides (as I am finding out with Leyton Orient), but Wigan are a pretty classy outfit that score plenty of goals and they might take some stopping here.

According to Opta, the Latics have progressed from six of their last seven FA Cup ties against non-league opposition, whilst the Opta team also state that the Coasters are yet to win an FA Cup tie against Football League opposition (losing three).

The 4-0 victory of the MK Dons at Hyde was a perfect example of how the quality can kill off games. I watched the match with someone who knows far more about non-league than I do, and we agreed that Hyde had one or two moments and close calls to get something - but the MK Dons had the killer quality to settle the match - and that's precisely what I expect from Wigan here.

With 42 points and a goal difference of +24, coupled with the best away defence in the division, we should expect them to score at least twice here for the bets. After all, they have only drawn one blank in 11 games on the road this season and have the likes of Will Grigg, Michael Jacobs and Ryan Colclough. Grigg's a class apart at this level, and after a slow start, he usually clicks into gear come December time.

There are various options here with Wigan to Win Both Halves, and even the lay of AFC Fylde +1. However, I would take the Asian Handicap here with Wigan -2, simply as they have a good defence and quality in wide areas.

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Back Wigan Athletic 0.5pt -2 on Asian Handicap

Bradford City 1.55 v Plymouth Argyle 5.50, the draw 3.55

Saturday, 15:00

For an FA Cup tie between two League One sides, it's priced-up as though it has a feel of a non-league team in there somewhere. Plymouth's priorities are to stay in the division, likewise the Bradford gameplan would be to get out of it. However, I can't help thinking that the hosts here are a little short.

The Bantams may sit in fifth position, but they are proving to be somewhat unpredictable. There's no doubting their quality in the team, but they have lost five matches at Valley Parade this season - with defeats against the likes of Charlton, Fleetwood and Doncaster. They have also drawn against Oldham.

One of Bradford's losses at home came against Plymouth recently. It finished 0-1, but City had all the play, hit the woodwork twice and missed a penalty. Basically it was attack versus defence for 90 minutes.

It might go that way again, and it seems to suit the Greens. They may sit bottom of League One, but they are quite resolute these days defensively. Of their last nine matches - eight have hit the Under 2.5 Goals mark. The only blip came in the 4-0 loss to Oxford - a game in which they were down to ten men on 14 minutes.

For all their keeper problems, the signing of Toumani Diagouraga has been a masterstroke for Derek Adams. Of the nine matches he has played, the Pilgrims have only conceded seven times with him as their screener - and four came in that Oxford match.

City were 1-0 winners at Shrewsbury recently playing against a 4-1-4-1 in trying to break them down. It's the way I am seeing this, and whilst the Under 2.5 Goals might look a bit short, the Under 1.5 might be worth taking a chance on too. Especially with the Opta stat for Bradford - who have kept eight clean sheets in their last ten FA Cup matches.

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Back Under 1.5 Goals 0.5pt @ 3.20

AFC Wimbledon 2.40 v Charlton Athletic 2.46, the draw 3.40

Sunday, 14:00

Another all-League One cup tie, but a far more evenly poised market. However, the league positions are drastically different. Charlton are in the playoff hunt, whilst Wimbledon are in 20th.

I was with Charlton recently in the home match against the MK Dons, but my nemesis Kieran Agard scored on the penalty front (again) with a late equaliser in the dying seconds to destroy the bet. The Addicks however were on the other side of the last-minute special on Tuesday - in fact, with two. They were trailing 0-2 at home to Peterborough on 90 minutes, yet salvaged a point with a 2-2 result.

We all know the feeling of watching those late goals go in on Sky......

The reports on that game all pointed to Peterborough outclassing the Londoners for much of the contest. Whilst Karl Robinson unusually went more direct in a switch from his usual 4-2-3-1 to a traditional 4-4-2. Unusual for him to go long.

A more direct gameplan from Charlton will certainly suit the physical Dons.

However, the key point to make here is the mounting injuries for Charlton, and this should be a good chance for Wimbledon to take an opportunity to get into the third round.

Yes, the Dons are a little light on attacking options (in the words of manager Neal Ardley), but on the plus side they don't concede a lot at home. Indeed, they have shipped just 12 in ten games - although they have only scored nine.

Wimbledon lost at the weekend to Walsall, but prior to that, they were four unbeaten, and they might be able to nick this. I would also favour the Under 2.5 with a look to a 1-0 home win.

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Back AFC Wimbledon to win 0.5pt @ 2.40 
Back Under 2.5 Goals 0.5pt @ 1.85