Watford v Man Utd: Stuttering visitors worth laying against impressive Hornets

Watford v Man Utd
Tuesday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport

Hornets buzzing again after some unlucky defeats

After losing three games on the spin - rather unfortunately in at least two of those defeats - Watford have bounced back in fine style with back-to-back victories over struggling West Ham (2-0) and Newcastle (3-0), cementing their position in the top half of the table.

The fine start made by the Hornets has resulted in their boss, Marco Silva, appear on the radar of some bigger clubs, with manager-less Everton the latest to show an interest. On the pitch Brazilian youngster Richarlison has caught the eye massively, while more recently, Dutch wing-back Marvin Zeegelaar has impressed in Silva's 3-5-1-1 formation.

Although Watford have picked up more points on the road this term than they have at Vicarage Road (13 as opposed to 8), it would be folly to believe that they are best suited to playing on their travels. Those 13 away points were all gained against clubs currently in the bottom half of the table, while on home soil Silva's men have already had to face the likes of Arsenal, Liverpool, and Manchester City.

Another impressive aspect of Watford's excellent start to the season is the number of goals they have scored. Only City (42), Man Utd (28), Liverpool (25), Chelsea (24), and Arsenal (23) have scored more than the Hornets this term, and their 22 goals scored have been shared between no less than 11 different players.

Stuttering United not so hot on their travels

United made it 10 wins out of 10 at Old Trafford on Saturday with a hard-fought 1-0 win over Brighton, a result that maintained their position in second place in the table though they are a massive-looking eight points behind leaders Man City.

Away from home Jose Mourinho's men haven't been quite so prolific, losing three, and drawing one, of their last six games on their travels in all competitions. A 2-2 draw at then out-of-form Stoke and a 2-1 defeat to newly-promoted Huddersfield, plus last week's Champions League loss to Basel, certainly gives slight cause for alarm ahead of United's midweek trip to Vicarage Road.

Henrikh Mkhitaryan, so impressive in United's early season winning streak, seems to have lost his form - and confidence after Mourinho's public criticism - dramatically, while the returning Paul Pogba is taking time to rediscover his own early-season brilliance.

But perhaps the biggest concern is the sudden loss of form to United's record signing Romelu Lukaku. After starting the season with 11 goals in 10 games for his club, the striker has now scored just once in his last 10 starts for United. Don't be surprised if the returning Zlatan Ibrahimovic is given the nod to start on Tuesday.

Watford avoiding defeat looks worth a wager

The market is heavily in favour of a United victory on Tuesday night, with the away side trading at 1.70 to take all three points. It's hard to have too much confidence in Mourinho's men delivering at those odds.

As we alluded to above, United have won just two of their last six away from home but it's worth pointing out that those victories came in cup competitions and that they haven't taken three league points on their travels for over two months, since they beat Southampton 1-0 at St Mary's.

In fact United's last five league away results don't make for impressive reading at all; 2-2 at Stoke, 0-1 at Southampton, 0-0 at Liverpool, 2-1 at Huddersfield, and 1-0 at Chelsea. That's just five points taken from a possible 15.

And in addition to the Red Devils' indifferent away form they haven't looked too impressive on home soil either. The goals have seemingly dried up and quite a few of their big names are underperforming. At the current prices, United have to be opposed on Tuesday night.

Watford are available to back at 5.80 for the win, and I imagine at that price, the Hornets will be one of the most popular midweek wagers for those who like a small interest at decent odds. Silva's men scored three in a home draw with Liverpool and also defeated Arsenal at Vicarage Road, so they are more than capable of holding their own against United given the visitors' current away form.

The Draw can be backed at 4.00, but I'm happy to get that outcome plus the home win on side by laying United at 1.71.

Both defences to keep it tight

You just don't get the same sense of excitement ahead of a game featuring Manchester United as you do when say, City, Liverpool, or Spurs are about to play. Mourinho can set his teams up to suck the life out of games at times, and I have a gut feeling that he'll aim to do something along those lines in this encounter.

He'll want to quieten the home faithful, and that could be by packing the midfield, dominating possession, and restricting Watford as much as possible. That's all well and good but on current form I just don't envisage United scoring two or three themselves.

Five of Man Utd's last six away games have resulted in Under 2.5 Goals landing, and that's the same way that Watford's last two home matches have gone. At an odds-against price, that's the bet to have in this market.

Recommended Bets

Lay Man Utd to Win @ 1.71
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.08