Leeds v Aston Villa: Value with the Villains on Friday night

Leeds v Aston Villa
Friday 1st December, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports

Leeds back on track

Leeds manager Thomas Christiansen targeted six points from nine during a gruelling six-day schedule last week and his Whites' team delivered his wish when beating Barnsley 2-0 at Oakwell thanks to first-half goals from Samuel Saiz and Gjanni Alioski in a controlled performance.

United climbed to eighth following that positive result with the manager admitting the recent international break was crucial in allowing him the time to try and arrest the slide after form in the league had nosedived. Sticking doggedly to his preferred 4-2-3-1 formation, the fruits of a thousand hours spent huddled around laptops at the training ground is starting to take shape.

Christiansen brought goalkeeper Felix Wiedwald back into the first-team equation at Barnsley and handed Caleb Ekuban only a second Championship start in the lone striker role at Oakwell. Both should continue whilst Pierre-Michel Lasogga and Stuart Dallas are available again. Eunan O'Kane is a doubt.

Aston Villa in fine form

Aston Villa have motored up the Championship standings, shooting up from 18th to fourth following a run of nine victories from their last 12 outings, the most recent of which was a routine 2-0 triumph over Ipswich at Villa Park.

Albert Adomah was again the star, scoring a brace to take his tally to 10 league goals for the Villans. With four of those goals breaking the deadlock, the livewire winger can be backed at 9/2 to score first or 15/8 to notch at anytime on Friday night.

Steve Bruce isn't expected to make major changes to his team here with Chris Sambareturning to the starting XI to replace the injured Mile Jedinak whilst Keinan Davis will lead the line once again with Scott Hogan and Jonathan Kodjia absent. Elsewhere, Andre Green and John Terry are both sidelined through injury.

Value with the visitors

Leeds 2.80 have lost seven of their last 10 league outings, a run that includes three defeats from four at Elland Road. Derby and Sheffield United both departed with maximum points here recently although the hosts have remained competitive with their three home losses all arriving by a solitary strike (W4-D2-L3).

Aston Villa 2.48 arrive in fine form and full of confidence following three consecutive victories. The visitors have tasted a sole reverse in seven road trips - at league leaders Wolves.

Steve Bruce's men might lack the style and panache of their promotion rivals, but there is much to admire in their organisation, resilience and the relentless manner in which they have picked up result after result. The Villans look decent value at 2.02 in the Draw No Bet market considering United have lost four of their five other meetings with top-six Championship clubs this season.

Contrasting goal trends

Seven of the past eight meetings between Leeds and Aston Villa across all competitions have featured fewer than three goals and long-term trends from the two clubs also suggest another low-scoring duel could be on the cards.

Since the start of last season, Under 2.5 Goals 1.59 has collected in 12/32 (38%) of Leeds' home matches, as well as 10/32 (31%) of Aston Villa's away days. With the duo also seeing both sides score in just 22/64 (34%), opposing goals seems a fair action to take.

However, nine of Leeds' last 11 Championship encounters have broken the Over 2.5 Goals 2.26 barrier and the two teams are collectively averaging 2.11 total Expected Goals from open play this season, a healthy figure. With that in mind, I'm happy to leave the goals markets alone.

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