Everton v Chelsea: Lukaku to ace his job interview

Everton v Chelsea
Sunday April 30, 14:05
Live on Sky Sports 1

Everton 

There's no disgrace in drawing 0-0 at West Ham but in the context of Everton's excellent recent run, it was a bit of a disappointment. The performance as much as the result.

But there's no doubt that Everton have come on leaps and bounds under Ronald Koeman. There seems to be a set game-plan, he's rotated the squad well to give everyone a chance while keeping players fresh, has changed systems for particular games and has got the best out of Ross Barkley, something Roberto Martinez never managed.

But whatever happens in terms of the league table, this won't be a pleasant summer for the Dutchman. One or both of Barkley and Romelu Lukaku will have to be sold if they don't put pen to paper and he'll have to be thinking about which players have the right profile to replace them once the money is in the coffers.

No new injury news. That means Ramiro Funes Mori, Seamus Coleman, Yannick Bolasie, Muhammed Besic and James McCarthy are all still out.

Chelsea 

Antonio Conte overcame two important hurdles this week. He'll be experiencing FA Cup final day in his first season after beating Spurs at the weekend and a midweek win over Southampton means Tottenham's good win at Palace leaves things 'as you were.'

I'm pretty sure Tuesday's game was the first time this season that Cesc Fabregas, N'Golo Kante and Nemanja Matic all featured in the same side. One of those is likely to give way to either Willian or Pedro so Conte can revert to his more traditional 3-4-3 with Diego Costa upfront and one of those two playing flanking the Spanish international, alongside Eden Hazard.

Every last player in the squad is available. And Conte may as interested in one of the opposition's players as he is in his own. A stronger, more experienced Lukaku is a very different one to the player who left Chelsea a few years ago and would be a perfect fit for them, especially if rumours are to be believed that Diego Costa is heading East.

Match Odds/Asian Handicap

If you want to keep things simple, lay Chelsea at 2.10. Opta tell us Everton's home record against them has been excellent over the past few seasons, winning five of their last seven Premier League games against the west London side at Goodison Park. They've also made home advantage count in the past few weeks, winning all of their last eight home matches, a record for them in the Premier League era.

But an even better alternative is to support the home side at 0 & +0.5 on the Asian Handicap. There have been no draws between the two in any of those last seven at Goodison and that winning run suggests high levels of confidence when they're at home. There's no reason why they can't keep up that winning run and it's 4.00 if you fancy it but I'd rather keep both results onside. Backing Everton 0 & +0.25 means you'll get paid out at 1.62 if they draw and at [2.33] if they win.

Both teams to score?

I was quite looking forward to backing both teams to score because I think this could be an open and exciting game of football. As has been the case with matches involving both teams recently. Chelsea's last few have gone: 4-2, 4-2, 0-2, 3-1, 2-1, 2-1, 2-1. Everton's have gone 0-0, 3-1, 4-2, 1-1 and 3-1. But the head-to-head between the two doesn't suggest that's the way to go: only five of the last 10 have seen both teams scoring. So little or no value in taking 1.70 that both sides will find the net.

To Score 

We successfully backed Eden Hazard to score in midweek but this game is all about value. Meaning that he was a good bet to score at home to Southampton at 13/10 but less so to score away at Everton at 6/4, even though it's obviously a bigger price.

Opta tell us Lukaku has oddly never scored against Chelsea in five attempts. But that really is the only possible reason not to side with him here at a very attractive 17/10 on the Betfair Sportsbook. Not only has he now scored in all nine of Everton's competitive home matches in 2017 so far (14 goals) but Chelsea are hardly water-tight in defence at the moment. Seven matches without a clean sheet is hardly what an Italian manager expects from a defence featuring top-class players like Thibaut Courtois, David Luiz and Cesar Azpilicueta.

And assuming Lukaku would welcome a return to Stamford Bridge, what better way to convince Chelsea a) they should have given him more of a chance the first time round and b) he's the man to lead their line for the next five years...than scoring against them?

Recommended Bets

1pt Back Everton 0 & +0.5 Asian Handicap @ [2.33]
1pt Back Romelu Lukaku to score @ 17/10 on Betfair Sportsbook