Burnley v West Brom: Clarets can rediscover home form against switched off Baggies

Burnley v West Bromwich Albion
Saturday 6 May, 15:00

Burnley

It happened. It finally happened. Thirty-five games into the season and Burnley finally picked up their first away win of the 2016/17 campaign. And an important win it was too. The 2-0 victory over an otherwise in form Crystal Palace lifted the Clarets up to 39 points and eased fears they were slowly drifting towards relegation.

Before that result at Selhurst Park on Saturday afternoon Sean Dyche's side had picked up just seven points from a possible 33. But the win, thanks in part to Ashley Barnes' 11th goal of the season, means Burnley have now achieved their best ever points total in the Premier League.

There should be no underestimating the job Dyche has done, and one man who certainly appreciates him is Saturday's opponent Tony Pulis. The Welshman described the Burnley boss as one of the top three managers in the Premier League this week. Genuine praise, or perhaps a little mind game from his counterpart?

West Brom

For all that Pulis talks a good game in the press, his side have been awful on the pitch of late. Baggies fans may as well have packed up their bags on 25 February. Victory over Bournemouth that weekend marked the point in the season when they hit Pulis' magic number: the 40 point mark.

At that point in the season, West Brom were just nine points short of a Champions League place and hot on the tails of Everton in seventh. It is only because of their remarkable early season form that they haven't since dropped drastically down the table.

In the eight games since, the Baggies have picked up just four points from a possible 24. They haven't scored in five games since victory over Arsenal at the Hawthorns on 18 March and have lost each of the last four. With just four games left in the season there are now seven teams - including Burnley - within five points of them. If they don't start to pick up some points, an excellent season could well end up looking very mediocre.

Match Odds

While Burnley have struggled on the road, their almost certain survival in the Premier League can be put down to their home form. Turf Moor has been a fortress for the Clarets this season, accounting for 32 of their 39 points. A win on Saturday can help hoist them over that magic 40 points mark and even shoot them into the top half of the table.

They have drawn one and lost two of their last four home fixtures, but those were against Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United respectively. Disregarding those results, the Clarets have won six of their last nine fixtures at Turf Moor.

While the Baggies have a decent record over Burnley - beating them by four goal margins last year and in 2014 - I am dubious that will have too much of a role to play this weekend.

West Brom have been in woeful form of late and have little left to play for. Burnley have been excellent at Turf Moor and are still not guaranteed of survival in the league. For those reasons alone, they represent good value for a home win at 2.28.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

With West Brom's goal drought now stretching to 465 minutes and Burnley having scored just 35 goals in their 35 league games this season it is little surprise to see Under 2.5 Goals trading so short at 1.59.

Overs - which can be backed at 2.46 - has occurred in just one of Burnley's last seven games and one in six of West Brom's.

Correct Score

With those records laid out above, it may be tempting to back a narrow Burnley win in the correct score market. The 1-0 - four of Burnley's last five victories at home have been by that scoreline - is available at 7.00 and 2-0 at 11.50.

Recommended Bets

Back Burnley to win @ 2.28