Cook Islands v Papua New Guinea
Saturday, May 6, 3:15pm (AEST), Campbelltown Stadium


It will be a historic occasion when the Pacific Test triple-header takes place at Campbelltown Stadium on Saturday. Throw England and the Cook Islands into the mix this year and you can guarantee plenty of passion on the football field, yet another reflection of how far the controversial Country v City fixture has fallen. Last year’s double-header that saw Fiji take on PNG and Samoa play Tonga was one of the highlights of the 2016 rugby league calendar. The Wolf is looking forward to another exciting edition this year.
FormPapua New Guinea have won just one international since 2010, a surprise 24-22 win over Fiji in the Pacific Test last season. Over that span they have lost 15 Tests and internationals including a 58-0 loss to the PM’s XIII last year. Cook Islands have played just two Tests since the 2013 World Cup, losing 28-8 to Tonga before a 30-20 win over Lebanon in 2016.
Stats That Matter
Papua New Guinea are ranked 15th in the world while the Cook Islands are rated 25th. PNG and the Cook Islands have played twice previously with the Kumuls winning 46-6 in 1998 and 42-14 in 2009. Cook Islands have claimed some big scalps over the last decade with victories over Wales, Fiji and Samoa. PNG have just three international victories since 2001. PNG have conceded at least 30 points in 12 of their last 15 Tests. Cook Islands have conceded more than 30 in just two of their last nine internationals.
Final Thoughts
PNG definitely have an advantage here with a large portion of their squad playing together for the PNG Hunters in the QLD Cup and combinations won’t be an issue. The Cook Islands have named a squad that is low on NRL experience, but will no doubt show plenty of fight led by the Broncos Alex Glenn , who is clearly the most experienced first grader in the squad. PNG should be too strong here and win well.


How It’s Shaping UpPNG by 10

Tonga v Fiji
Saturday, May 6, 5:30pm (AEST), Campbelltown Stadium
Form
Fiji’s form since the 2013 World Cup has been somewhat indifferent with wins against Papua New Guinea and Samoa sandwiching a disappointing Pacific Test loss last year to the Kumuls. The Bati have won 7 of their last 14 Tests and 9 of their last 12 against fellow minnow nations. Tonga have lost three of their last four matches since the last World Cup with Pacific Test losses to Samoa in 2015 and ’16 and a loss to PNG in 2014. Their only victory was a 22-8 World Cup Qualification victory over Cook Islands in 2015.
Stats That Matter
Fiji and Tonga have surprisingly only met twice with Fiji winning both matches, a 30-28 win in 2006 and a 26-16 win in 2009 with both matches played at neutral venues. Fiji are the seventh ranked team in the world while Tonga are ranked 14th. The Bati have conceded more than 18 points in just two of their last 11 Tests against minnow nations. Fiji have scored more than 26 points just once since the 2008 World Cup. Tonga have won just 6 of their last 12 Tests against minnow nations. None of the last five Tonga Tests has tallied more than 38 points. Tonga have won just 1 of 3 Pacific Tests.
Final Thoughts
The Wolf isn’t expecting any blowouts in these Test matches, making the 8.5 start for Fiji look very generous here. There’s no questioning the talent in the Tongan side, with the likes of Will Hopoate, Tuimoala Lolohea and rising youngster Moses Suli in the side, but Fiji is also littered with exciting talent, including the Melbourne Storm’s try-scoring machine Suliasi Vunivalu. Tonga look to have the advantage in the forwards and it will ultimately prove the difference in a close contest.
How It’s Shaping Up
Tonga by 4
Best Bet
Fiji +8.5 ($1.90)

England v Samoa
Saturday, May 6, 7:40pm (AEST), Campbelltown Stadium
Form
After losing a thriller to New Zealand in the semis of the 2013 World Cup, England have won just six of 11 Tests since with two wins against the Kiwis and four against minnows France, Samoa and Scotland. Samoa defeated Tonga in Pacific Tests in 2015 and ’16 but went down 20-18 in an end-of-year international with Fiji. Prior to those Tests Samoa performed admirably in the Four Nations despite not winning a game.
Stats That Matter
England and Samoa have met twice before with England winning 38-14 in 2006 and 32-26 in a dramatic Four Nations clash in 2014. Samoa’s entire squad has experience at the NRL level while England have seven players currently in the NRL. Only one of England’s last seven Tests against a minnow has been decided by 26 points or fewer. England have won just 3 of 10 Southern Hemisphere Tests since 2008 with all three wins coming against minnows. England are ranked third in the RLIF World Rankings with Samoa fifth. Samoa have conceded 22 or more in just two of their last nine Tests.
Final Thoughts
Once again, The Wolf thinks the outsider will be up for the fight. Samoa has named an extremely strong squad containing the likes of Anthony Milford, Junior Paulo, Joseph Leilua and Josh McGuire. That’s plenty of NRL experience right there that will more than test the English side. England will no doubt look to play this one straight up the middle where they can call on Sam Burgess and James Graham to lead the charge. Josh Hodgson will need to be contained around the ruck otherwise Samoa could be in for a long night. As pointed out, Samoa have conceded 22 or more points in just two of their last nine Tests and should be able to go toe-to-toe with a strong English side. The Wolf thinks that England will have more structure and be able to grind out a tight victory.
How It’s Shaping Up
England by 6
Best Bet
England 1-12 ($3)

0 nhận xét Blogger 0 Facebook

Post a Comment

 
Top