AFL Preview: Crows v Tigers

Crows v Tigers
Sunday 4:40pm at Adelaide Oval

Adelaide are one of three undefeated teams through five rounds after a stunning start to the year where they have also covered every game. They have been the top attacking team this season posting 150-plus the last two weeks while averaging 133 points per game. They have not conceded more than 91 points with their defence rated fifth.

Richmond are also undefeated through five weeks on the back of the top rated defence in the AFL that is conceding just 75 points per game. The Tigers have been the surprise packets of the year and as such have covered every game. Richmond were down last round until the last quarter against Melbourne before a stirring final term comeback saw them collect the four points.

Stats That Matter

• Richmond have won 4 of the last 7 games against Adelaide with the two matches played at the Adelaide Oval spit one apiece
• Three of the last four Tigers-Crows games have gone under
• Richmond have posted 100 on the Crows just three times since the year 2000
• The Crows are 25-14 ATS since 2012 at the Adelaide Oval, covering their last four
• The Crows are 7-3 ATS with a 7-3 over record at the Adelaide Oval after scoring 120-plus
• Adelaide are 11-7 ATS at Adelaide Oval when favoured by 18.5 or more
• Richmond have covered just 2 of their last 9 interstate games
• Interstate outsiders who are getting 30-plus points and won last start are 21-35 ATS since 2012
• The Crows have played teams with a combined record of 13-12, the Tigers 8-17
• The Tigers have covered just 8 of their last 19 after scoring fewer than 90 points

Betting Data2017 Line: Adelaide 5-0, Richmond 5-0
2017 Over-Under: Adelaide 3-2, Richmond 1-4

What To ExpectThe Crows and Tigers are both undefeated but there is little question that Adelaide are playing the better football. They have had a tougher draw and they have been an offensive juggernaut that has seen them put some quality teams to the sword. With their dominant cover record at the Adelaide Oval and Richmond’s poor record interstate, the sharp money will be on the Crows.

How It’s Shaping UpAdelaide by 42

Recommended Bet

Best: Adelaide -30.5 ($1.90)

Player Markets

The irascible Dustin Martin is averaging 29.2 touches a game in 2017, posting 30-plus in three of his five outings. He is a player with plenty of class and the Crows are unlikely to try to shut him down as they will more likely rely on their ability to score to get them home rather than a strong tag.

Recommended Bet

Prop: Dustin Martin 30+ Disposals ($1.90)