Essendon v Port Adelaide
Saturday 7:25pm at Etihad Stadium

Essendon have fallen down the ladder and know a win is crucial against a Port Adelaide team just outside the Top 4.
Essendon are down to 12th on the AFL ladder with a 5-6 record following losses to Richmond and Greater Western Sydney. The Bombers had racked up wins against Geelong and West Coast leading into those defeats. The Bombers rank seventh in scoring but are a poor 14th in defence. The Dons have scored 100-plus in three of their last four.
Port Adelaide are fifth on the ladder with a 6-4 record. The Power have won four of their last six with their two losses both coming against Top 8 opposition. Port’s last four matches against teams outside the Top 8 have all been by 50-plus. Port’s metrics this year are outstanding ranking first in defence and second in attack.
Stats That Matter
– Port have won the last two against Essendon after dropping the previous five.
– Essendon have covered 4 of the last 5 against Port.
– The Bombers have covered 6 of their last 8 at Etihad.
– Essendon have covered 6 of their last 7 at Etihad as an underdog.
– Essendon have covered 10 of their last 14 at Etihad as an underdog at night.
– The under is 16-10 when the Bombers are an underdog at Etihad.
– Port have covered just 3 of their last 8 at Etihad.
– The Bombers are 24-12 under after scoring 100.
– The Power have covered 8 of their last 11 interstate games.
– Port have covered 5 of their last 6 as an interstate favourite.
– The Power have covered 8 of their last 11 night games.
Betting Data
2017 Line: Essendon 6-5, Port Adelaide 7-3
2017 Over-Under: Essendon 7-4, Port Adelaide 5-5
What To Expect
Port Adelaide have been so dominant against teams outside the Top 8 that they have to be the bet in this one. The Power have just decimated teams down the bottom end of the ladder and with their ability to both score and defend they look in a good position here. Few teams have their interstate record to boot.
How It’s Shaping Up
Port Adelaide by 29
Recommended Bet
Port Adelaide -16.5 ($1.91)
Player Markets
Brad Ebert is capable of a monster score and was so good in his last game posting 149. A likely low-scoring game suits him to the hilt.
Recommended Bet
Brad Ebert 120+ Fantasy Points ($2.30) 

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