After making a profit last week, Kevin Hatchard's back with three more Bundesliga picks.
Ailing Bayern can't be trusted
Werder Bremen v Bayern Munich Saturday 01 December, 14:30 Live on Betfair Live Video
With embattled Bayern Munich coach Niko Kovac seemingly being judged on a game-to-game basis now by the power-brokers at the Allianz Arena, and the champions defending as badly as I can remember in recent times, things are not going well at Sabener Strasse. A 5-1 win over a brittle Benfica side in the Champions League provided temporary respite, but Kovac will be in the glare of the spotlight again if Bayern slip up this weekend.
Bayern are already nine points behind Borussia Dortmund in the title race, after last Saturday's careless and chaotic 3-3 draw with Fortuna Dusseldorf. Bayern were 3-1 up against a team in the bottom two, but they looked jittery and conceded two almost identical goals as Dodi Lukebakio completed a hat-trick to snatch a point. You could have driven a bus through the gaps in Bayern's defence, and keeper Manuel Neuer is enduring a wretched run of form. To make matters worse, senior Bayern players remain unconvinced about Kovac's ability to come up with attacking solutions against deep and determined defences.
Werder Bremen were flying a few weeks ago, but they are suffering from their first real wobble of the campaign. The northerners have taken just a point from their last four matches, and they only got that one courtesy of a last-gasp equaliser at Freiburg last weekend. Having not lost in their first 17 competitive home matches under coach Florian Kohfeldt, Werder have lost the last two.
There is still a lot to like about this Werder team though. Davy Klaassen has been an excellent addition to the midfield, Maximilian Eggestein has come on leaps and bounds alongside the Dutchman, and Werder have a good range of attacking options.
The question I ask myself is whether Bayern are playing well enough to be backed at 1.42for the win, and I don't think they can be supported with any confidence right now, even against a Werder team that is struggling a bit right now. I'll lay the champions.
Freiburg can give the league leaders a scare
Borussia Dortmund v Freiburg Saturday 01 December, 14:30 Live on Betfair Live Video
Whisper it, but Borussia Dortmund's title charge is looking like a more realistic prospect with every week that passes. They showed champions' grit last weekend as they ground out a 2-1 win at Mainz, while their old foes Bayern were busy imploding against Fortuna Dusseldorf. BVB are now nine points ahead of Bayern, and four clear of second-placed Borussia Monchengladbach.
A goalless draw at home to Club Brugge in the Champions League was a bit of a blip, but far from a problematic one, as Dortmund have qualified for the last 16 with room to spare. In the Bundesliga, Dortmund have won their last three matches, and they are still yet to taste defeat under new coach Lucien Favre in the German top flight.
Freiburg's modest budget means they always start the season as part of the relegation conversation, but they have already collected 14 points from 12 games, as coach Christian Streich continues to turn base metal into gold. Although Freiburg haven't won any of their last three games in the league, they are at least scoring on a regular basis. SCF have scored in 11 of their last 12 matches in league and cup.
No-one doubts Dortmund's quality in attack and midfield (Marco Reus and Axel Witsel are arguably the league's two best players at present), but their one weakness appears to be in defence. Favre's side have kept just one clean sheet at home in the league, and although I suspect they'll eventually overpower Freiburg on Saturday, the visitors might land a blow or two.
I'll go for Both Teams To Score at 1.94
Foals to show their title credentials
RB Leipzig v Borussia Monchengladbach Sunday 02 December, 14:30 Live on BT Sport 3 and Betfair Live Video
There's a long way to go, but if Borussia Monchengladbach can maintain their recent form, they look far more likely than Bayern Munich to pressure Dortmund at the top. Gladbach hammered Hannover 4-1 last weekend (they have won all of their home matches), and a 3-1 win at Werder in their last away game suggests they might be toughening up and learning to excel away from the Rhineland.
Although Matthias Ginter is out until Christmas with a fractured eye socket, Tony Jantschke can provide adequate backup, and the Foals have so many good attacking players that they should outscore most teams anyway. Thorgan Hazard, Jonas Hofmann and Alassane Plea are all in magnificent form, so much so that the team is no longer reliant on Brazilian veteran Raffael.
RB Leipzig suffered a disastrous 1-0 defeat at Salzburg in the Europa League on Thursday, and they are on the brink of elimination in that competition. In the league Die Roten Bullen lost their last game 1-0 at Wolfsburg, and they have now lost three of their last four matches in all competitions.
Leipzig have won just four of their last nine games, and I think Gladbach's free-flowing attack can give them plenty of problems. I'll lay the hosts.
Lay Bayern Munich v Werder Bremen at 1.42
Back Both Teams To Score in Borussia Dortmund v Freiburg at 1.94