Paris Saint-Germain v Liverpool
Wednesday, 20:00
BT Sport 2
With both of these sides trailing Napoli with two games to play in Group C of the Champions League, there's every chance at least one of them won't be heading into the knockout stage.

Defeat for either here would leave them, at best, staring down the barrel and in PSG's case they could be out at the final whistle if they lose.

Doubts over PSG stars

The hosts will certainly be concerned by recent injuries to both Neymar (groin) and Kylian Mbappe (shoulder). They form part of a fearsome frontline with Edinson Cavani, a trio arguably more dangerous than Liverpool's attack which is saying something, and either missing out would clearly be a blow for boss Thomas Tuchel.
That said, both reportedly returned to training on Monday with Tuchel talked up their chances of playing. That goal-laden attack has helped PSG score in their last 20 Champions League matches and they've been smashing goals in for fun at the Parc de Princes - 39 in 11 games this season. In Europe, it is just two defeats in their last 49 at home in European competition.

Away-day blues for Reds

Liverpool look set to welcome Joe Gomez back to their defence after he missed Saturday's 3-0 win at Watford, while Adam Lallana will also be an option for boss Jurgen Klopp, although he's an unlikely starter.

The Reds have disappointed on the road in this competition so far, failing to score in defeats to both Napoli and, more surprisingly, Red Star Belgrade. Those results mean they've now lost their last three away games in this competition, while their last 21 European trips have resulted in just five wins (and eight losses).

PSG need to win

The match odds make Liverpool 3.35 for victory, with the hosts 2.18 favourites - they are the ones who really need to win here. If Napoli beat Red Star in the night's other game and PSG only draw, things will be out of the French side's hands.
Perhaps that is why the draw is offered at 4.00. At first glance it looked tempting, particularly as that result would leave Liverpool knowing victory at home to Napoli on matchday six would take them through and they are usually pretty confident of winning any game at Anfield.
The way the group is set up suggests a late goal is more than possible here - it's not hard to see PSG pushing for the win and at the same time leaving themselves open to a counter-attack.

Goal-fest not guaranteed

Over 2.5 goals is 1.54 which is hardly surprising given the wealth of attacking talent at these sides' disposal with the unders at 2.80.
Again, going back to the group situation I'm not convinced this will be gung-ho football on show and that under quote could offer some value.

Side against early goal

However, a better option to fit that theory looks to be to back the opening goal to come after the 23rd minute at even money. With so much at stake I can see a much cagier start than is usually associated with these teams.
It should also be remembered that despite a strong start by Liverpool in the reverse fixture - one they deserved to win (3-2) despite requiring a stoppage-time goal to do so - they still needed a full half an hour to make the breakthrough. Their away game with Napoli also failed to bring about an early goal, while PSG and the Italian side failed to produce a goal inside the opening 23 minutes of their two games.

I think the market has been skewed by PSG's Ligue 1 stats - the majority of their games have seen a goal in the first 23 minutes. However, I feel that says more about how superior the men from the capital are compared to their domestic rivals than anything else and it is telling that the figures from their much tougher Champions League games do not match.
All things considered, this looks the best betting option in a game which should be enthralling, even if it doesn't produce as many goals as the layers seems to expect.

Same Game Multi

It's in Liverpool's interests to keep things tight and with their new-found confidence at the back they look capable of doing so, especially given two of PSG's frontline don't seem to be fully fit. I can therefore see value in under 2.5 goals.

James Milner is a reliable penalty taker for Liverpool and he netted from the spot in the reverse fixture. With a referee in charge who has given nine penalties in his 22 games in all competitions this season, I'm tempted by him scoring again. Add the two selections together and you get a tasty 40.93
RECOMMENDED BETS
2pts Time of First Goal to be after 23rd Minute @ evens

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