Dulwich Hamlet v Carlisle United: Visitors can ride the FA Cup storm

Carlisle face a tricky night in south London, says Ian Lamont, but whether Steve Pressley goes for young or experienced centre-backs, they should squeeze past their hosts.

Dulwich Hamlet v Carlisle United
Friday, November 8, 19:55
Live on BBC Two

The right recipe for a nailbiting night

If you are looking for FA Cup upsets, you definitely want the non-league team at home, not away: which is precisely why the BBC will visit Champion Hill, where Peter Crouch once played on loan for the hosts, on Friday night.

Exeter, at Warrington in 2014, and Notts County at Salford City in 2015, have capitulated on a Friday night in the First Round to non-league teams in recent years, while AFC Wimbledon survived 1-0 at Haringey Borough last season.

Gavin Rose's Dulwich Hamlet, two divisions below their visitors, are enjoying their second season in the National South and are comfortably mid-table. They are in the first round for the first time in 21 years. They have been back in their ground since December 2018, after resolving a nine-month dispute with the landlords.

Carlisle were displaced from their home much more temporarily, in December 2015, because of Storm Desmond, in a season which coincided with their most recent run to a big televised game, against Everton.

They beat Yeovil in a third round replay and returned to Brunton Park in time to host the Toffees, losing 3-0 in January 2016 in the fourth round. The next season, they beat St Albans, away, of the National League South in the First Round. Since all that, however, manager Keith Curle left, to be replaced by Steve Pressley. And at present they are terribly out of form.

Nervous visitors, not in great form, turn to youth

Never mind that Dulwich Hamlet haven't won a league match since August, they are on a hiding to nothing and have £36,750 in the bank from their cup run. Their visitors are the ones under pressure against players with a point to prove, most of them having spent time in the professional game, if only at big club academies.

Several Dulwich players have experience in the Championship, including midfielder Connor Hunte (at Wolverhampton Wanderers), defender Quade Taylor (Bolton, after time at Crystal Palace), and striker Danny Mills (Peterborough).

Pressley has pretty much apologised for his side's start to the season, saying he understands fans' frustrations - they sit 19th - and pointing to his time at Falkirk which ended OK after a poor start.

The FA Cup, then, is a chance to reset and make a mark. A first victory in six League Two fixtures, against Macclesfield at home, was a fillip, not least for Ryan Loft, who scored what turned out to be the winner and who admitted his goal and the win had lifted him after a tough few weeks.

In his case, the striker has been on the fringes of the team, but that is probably a simile for Carlisle's season - practically on the fringes of their division.

If he can feel the tension in the crowd when the results aren't coming, that will be nothing to feeling it in front of a TV audience at a non-league ground.

Young Jarrad Branthwaite, 17, and Jon Mellish in defence will have to again be at their best. Centre-back Branthwaite will need all that fearlessness of youth against the ruggedness of experienced non-league part-timers.

Scouts are already watching. It's not just for the hosts, the likes of ambitious Ade Yusuff, that this is a shop window.

Experienced Carlisle duo Byron Webster (suspended) and Nathaniel Knight-Percival (out of favour), will be hoping Pressley returns to tried and trusted, instead of going again with the youngsters. A home win price of 4.30 in the match odds market is relatively short, while 1.90 on the visitors to win is a price some of the favourites in League Two have been quoted at to beat the less good teams in their own division.

It's a layable price, with a chance to cash out if it at least doubles if the game goals on goalless for, say, the first half. Clearly, the layers aren't totally convinced the Cumbrians will have this all their own way.

On bare form, Dulwich might have only three points from five games, but they do come in the form of three draws - not something the visitors have been particularly privy to this season, so from the home team backers' point of view it is worth considering at 4.20.

For Dulwich, midfielder Ben Chapman, 20, has brief experience at Gillingham having been released in the summer, while centre back Taylor, 25, now has 100 appearances for the hosts.

These players have a point to prove. Don't focus on the plumbing, scaffolding or real life jobs they apparently do. Relish on the football skills.

History suggests a lack of goals

One feels that if Dulwich were to win this tie it would be at the first attempt, and by a single goal, just like when Exeter and Notts County fell.

Anyone figuring that scenario should look at the goal lines market , where over/under goals markets can all be seen. Under 2.5 goals is at 2.70, which is more or less the same as the over 3.5 goals price should you think that Harry McKirdy, Hallam Hope or Olufela Olomola (the Scunthorpe loanee), can have big scoring days for the visitors.

Will Charlie Grainger, a former Leyton Orient goalkeeper, have his work cut out in the Dulwich goal?

Early home goal and cashout?

If Dulwich are to put the cat among the pigeons and give themselves any chance of winning, they are likely to score first and the winning margin be 1-0, priced 15.00 in the correct score market.

I read somewhere Dulwich score a large portion of their goals in the 15-30 minute period. Christian Smith, experienced at 31, is a 26.00 shot to be first goalscorer on our Sportsbook pages, and probably the one to do it, having scored in three of the club's last four league games.

Alternatively look for Yusuff. Previous clubs included Dagenham, where, despite having a professional contract, he retained his job as a waiter.

If Dulwich did take that lead, cashing out at a third of the original price would be the aim, while Carlisle refocused.

I fancy Carlisle to weather the storm and sneak through, and the better way to support that is for them to win to nil at 4.00, rather than backing "no" in the both teams to score, which is only 2.60 by comparison. I'm happy to ignore the possibility of a draw. An away win at 1-0? It's among the layers' favourites at about 10.00.