Few goals expected at St James' Park
Newcastle 2.72 v Bournemouth 2.92; Draw 3.40
I had a little moan a fortnight ago because Thursday night Europa League games meant we were left with just three Saturday 3pm kick-offs in the Premier League. We have four matches kicking off at the traditional Saturday time this week but they make less appeal from a betting point of view than then trio of games two weeks ago.
Excuses out of the way then, this week's column will be quite brief and generally straight to the recommended bets.
And the bet I fancy in this game is to be few goals being scored. Under 2.5 Goals can be backed at 1.84 but I'm happy to take a chance on Under 1.5 Goals given Bournemouth's impressive defensive work of late.
Eddie Howe's men are on a run of three consecutive clean sheets and before that they conceded just one away at Arsenal. But what has come with an improved defensive display of late is a barren run in front of goal for the Cherries, scoring just once themselves in those last four games meaning all four resulted in Under 1.5 Goals paying out.
Newcastle may have won 3-2 away from home last Saturday but at St James' Park they've yet to score more than one goal in a game all season.
Their five Premier League scorelines on home soil this term read 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0 and 1-1, and this, in addition with Bournemouth's current run of results surely suggests that backing Under 1.5 Goals at 3.50 is well worth a shout.
Saints can bounce back against travel sick Toffees
Southampton 3.10 v Everton 2.54; Draw 3.50
We've been against Everton the last two times they've played away from home and thankfully it's paid dividends. The Toffees were favourites both times too, away at Burnley and away at Brighton, they lost both times.
So forgive the repetitive narrative around this bet but given Marco Silva's men are favourites on the road once again, then we simply have to take them on.
Everton are now winless in their last eight league away games stretching back to the end of last season and the teams they've faced in that time hardly constitute as a tough set of fixtures. Relegated Fulham, Crystal Palace twice, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Burnley and Brighton. It's a dream run of fixtures in all honesty, and yet Silva's men failed to win any of them and failed to score a single goal in five of those matches.
Okay, Saturday's opposition is out-of-form Southampton, but I dare say that the success I have most with punting in the Premier League is to keep it simple and just go against teams that are favourites when on current form - whether that be a run of home games, away games, or a combination of both - they have no right to be favourites.
The Saints have conceded 16 goals in their last three league home games, yes, that's 16 goals, but they deserve a lot of credit for the way they played, battled, and demonstrated a lot of team spirit, in two narrow away defeats to Premier League champions Man City in the last week or so.
Back in front of their own fans Southampton will be desperate to get back to winning ways, and with Everton so poor on the road and without their best midfielders Andre Gomes - who we wish a very speedy and successful recovery - and Fabian Delph I can see Ralph Hasenhuttl's men securing a vital three points.
Another confidence-builder for Spurs
Tottenham 1.61 v Sheffield United 6.40; Draw 4.50
I was successful with a few lay bets last weekend and I tried desperately hard to include a lay bet this week, but with just four matches kicking off at 3pm this one was the only game that offered an opportunity to lay at odds-on in the Match Odds market.
But as much as I respect Sheffield United - they seem to get better and better each week - and accept that they could easily cause the Tottenham backline a few problems, I'm still finding it hard to envisage anything but a home win.
Spurs were excellent in midweek when thrashing Red Star 4-0 away from home. Mauricio Pochettino adopted a relatively new system for that game that included Son Heung-min playing upfront alongside Harry Kane, as well as introducing a few fresh faces. It worked a treat. Tottenham looked great going forwards and ran out easy winners, and a goal for substitute Christian Eriksen was the icing on the cake.
Perhaps what happened at Goodison Park last week, when Son was wrongly sent-off (the red card has since been rescinded) for the incident that resulted in Andre Gomes' horrific injury, has brought this squad back together again. There have been definite signs in the last couple of weeks that Tottenham are approaching their best form.
Sheff Utd are sixth in the table and incredibly they've played five times away from home, including at Chelsea, Everton and West Ham, and are yet to taste defeat. I can see the run coming to an end on Saturday however if - and perhaps it's a big if - Tottenham are in the same mood as they were in midweek.
From those five undefeated away games Chris Wilder's men have been involved in four low-scoring (two or fewer goals being scored) games, while four of the Blades' last five home games also finished that way. They're a tough nut to crack for sure, but expect Spurs to make the breakthrough and taken the points in another relatively low-scoring game.
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