Watford v Chelsea: Blues can enjoy another road trip

Dave Tindall looks at Saturday evening's showdown between Watford and Chelsea...

Watford v Chelsea
Saturday, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

Watford still winless

We've reached double figures now and, despite a change of manager, Watford have failed to win any of their 10 games.

Five draws is something to cling on to but the Hornets are bottom of the table and have managed just five goals whilst conceding 21.

There is, though, one obvious short-term effect of the return of Enrique Sanchez Flores for a second spell in the Vicarage Road hotseat.

Despite shipping eight against Manchester City, Watford are unbeaten in four home games since the Spaniard arrived and that includes a pair of clean sheets (in 0-0 draws) against Sheffield United and Bournemouth.

A dimmer view of those same results is that Watford remain winless in their last nine Premier League home games (D4 L5) when winding back to last season.

Blues hoping to bounce back

A run to the Carabao Cup final would have seemed quite a fitting start for Frank Lampard's shiny, young team - a building block for something bigger - but defeat to Manchester United on Wednesday night ended all that.

However, perhaps that merely confirmed an early pattern under Lampard's regime: Chelsea are dodgy betting material at home but an attractive side to punt on the road.

Their climb to fourth in the table with the same number of points (20) as much-hyped Leicester has been down to away form, Chelsea winning four of their five road trips and smashing in 16 goals in the process.

Those wins and goals have all come in the last four games following what now looks a freakish 4-0 defeat to Man Utd on opening weekend.

The suspicion that day was that Lampard was onto something and it's played out in victories over Norwich (3-2), Wolves (5-2), Southampton (4-1) and Burnley (4-2).

Add in Champions League wins over Lille and Ajax and that's six straight away victories. Impressive stuff.

Visitors hot favourites

There's only one way the market is ever going to go here but are Chelsea being slightly overestimated at 1.69? Or is that actually more than fair?

It's probably about right to be honest.

Watford are 5.40 to gain their first win while The Draw is 4.40.

Looking at past head-to-heads, Chelsea won this fixture 2-1 last season while Watford have won just one of their last 11 Premier League meetings with Chelsea, losing eight.

The victory was that unlikely 4-1 win in February 2018.

Best bets in side markets

Chelsea's results on the road suggests backing the basic win price is an unimaginative way of getting on board.

One question is how much credence do we give to Watford's improved defending?

While 0-0 draws against Sheffield United and Bournemouth are worthy, five of the Blades' last six goals have featured no more than a single goal while the Cherries have fired blanks in their last three games.

Chelsea are a completely different attacking force so it's time to get a little more ambitious.

Two options, without overegging the goals pudding, are for Chelsea to win and Both Teams to Score at 3.20 along with Over 1.5 First Half Goals at 2.52.

Starting with the former, that outcome has landed in each of Chelsea's last four away games so getting north of 2/1 seems decent. Watford's lack of goals is obviously a factor but Chelsea do concede and have a habit of taking their foot off the gas when the job is done.

In terms of first-half goals, again it's had a 100% strike-rate in Chelsea's last four on their travels.

Abraham looks safest choice

In theory, it seems like Chelsea have no end of potential goalscorers.

But some aren't quite worthy of their relatively short odds. Mason Mount has scored just once in his last nine while Callum Hudson-Odoi's only strike in his seven games this term came in the 7-1 win at home to Grimsby.

It means it may pay to take the obvious route and back Tammy Abraham at just over even money.

Seven of his nine goals have come on the road so it's clear he likes the extra space rather than having a bank of defenders in front of him.

Other options include Willian, who has three goals in his last six, and Turf Moor hat-trick hero Christian Pulisic.

Opta stat

Chelsea have won their last four away Premier League games, netting at least three goals each time. In top-flight history, only Everton have won five consecutive away games while netting 3+ goals each time, doing so back in December 1927 en route to winning the league title.