The Editors' Premier League Betting Battle 2019-20: Round 12

A win for Mike gave him a boost as he chases leader Dan, while Jake climbed off the bottom of the table when Wolves denied Arsenal. Here are our five wagers for the 12th week of Premier League action...

Midlands rivals to entertain after the interval

Dan Thomas
Back Second Half in 'Half with Most Goals' market in Wolves v Aston Villa @ 11/10
Sunday, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports

It's a straightforward stats-based bet for me this week after I was burnt last time by going purely on the price for Palace to beat Leicester.

The first and second half performances for these two Midlands rivals are pretty extraordinary and may well be added to the dictionary definition of 'chalk and cheese' soon.

Opta tell us that no side has conceded fewer first half goals than Villa (3) but no one has let in more after the interval (15).

In a Premier League table based on first half results, Villa would have joint most (22) while Wolves would have joint fewest. But for the second half, only Leicester would have more than Nuno Espírito Santo's men (23).

So a Villa/Wolves bet in the HT/FT market is a tempter at 14/1 but I'll keep it simple and back second half in the Half with Most Goals market at 11/10.

Dan Thomas 2019-20 P/L: +£83.20

Don't expect goals at St James' Park

Mike Norman
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.86 in Newcastle v Bournemouth
Saturday, 15:00

This is probably one of the shortest-price bets I've put up in the Battle, but I'm struggling to find a very confident bet this week and the one that I liked at the prices - Liverpool to beat Man City - has already been snaffled up by Joe the shrewdy.

So it's all about a numbers game for me this week.

Bournemouth's last four games have finished 1-0, 0-0, 0-0 and 1-0. I don't know how, but the great entertainers have turned into a well-oiled defensive machine. But with that has come a lack of goals at the other end.

Newcastle's home games this term have finished 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0 and 1-1. We know that Steve Bruce's men generally struggle to score, but on home soil they can be a tough nut to crack, as the results and number of goals conceded proves.

So that's it from me this week. Nine scorelines mentioned and not a number '2' in sight. If that trend continues on Saturday we'll bag another winner, short-price or not.

Mike Norman 2019-20 P/L: +£22.80

Rainbow time on the south coast

Jake Osgathorpe
Back BTTS and Over 2.5 goals @ 2.13 on the Same Game Multi in Southampton v Everton
Saturday, 15:00

This game could put the final nail in the coffin for Ralph Hasenhüttl or Marco Silva as both managers come into this match in desperate need of a win.

Southampton put in a much more committed performance at the Etihad last weekend than their roll-over job in the 9-0 defeat against Leicester, but were fortunate to hang on for as long as they did. They were absolutely hammered on xG once again (xG: MCI 3.92 - 0.76 SOU).

Their xGA is creeping up after a decent start to the season (1.96 xGA per game), but that can happen when you allow 8.77 xGA in your last two games...

Southampton sit third bottom of the table and three points from safety (behind their opponents in this game), but, surprisingly, they rank as the 11th best team on xG, so their process hasn't been bad. However, we have seen a decline, probably due to a tough schedule (their last five games have been against teams who finished in the top nine last season) and a lack of confidence.

Everton earned a draw with Tottenham last weekend in what was a game marred by the injury to Andre Gomes, but the draw was the least they deserved based on chances created (xG: EVE 1.10 - 0.53 TOT). The Toffees rank as the most unfortunate team in the Premier League after 11 matches. They sit 17th in the table, but rank as the fifth best team according to expected goals.

Their process is impressive (1.57 xGF, 1.17 xGA per game), and if they continue performing at this level it is only a matter of time before the results take a turn for the better.

For my battle bet this week, I was tempted to go with the Everton win, but instead I'm looking to play it safe in a game where I'm expecting goals. Both sides create good chances regularly, and allow them, with Southampton especially weak at the back currently. Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score in a same game multi pays 2.13, which will do me nicely.

Jake Osgathorpe 2019-20 P/L: -£8.40

Take advantage of wrongly-priced Liverpool

Joe Dyer
Back Liverpool @ 2.72 v Manchester City
Sunday, 16:00
Live on Sky Sports

Most people I talk to can't believe that Liverpool aren't favourites to beat Manchester City at Anfield this Sunday. I agree and, purely on value grounds, I have to make the Reds my pick this week.

Opposing City shouldn't come easy to any punter but there is enough in the home side's favour that they warrant a bet at 2.72.

Firstly, the Anfield factor. Liverpool have an exceptional recent home record, losing just one of their last 50 top-flight fixtures at Anfield, though admittedly that was to City.

Next up, current form. The Reds are unbeaten in 28 and have begun the year in red-hot form, dropping points just once in 11 Premier League games.

Lastly, personnel. Keeper Ederson may miss this clash and the defence is already shorn of Aymeric Laporte while Rodrigo will be also be missing. Those absences would take away much of City's steel.

Liverpool hold a six point lead coming into the fixture and I can see the sense in the argument that a draw would be a good result for them, but why not go for the win and establish a genuinely big cushion over City? Joel Matip is the only definite first-team absentee and I can see a near full-strength home side going all out to inflict a damaging defeat on their principal title rivals...

Joe Dyer's 2019-20 P/L: -£14.30

Foxes to add to Emery's woes

Jasmine Baba
Leicester to win on the -1 handicap @ 11/4 v Arsenal
Saturday, 17:30

In what is turning out to be the most predictable Arsenal season ever, expect this match to follow the same script when they travel to Leicester on Saturday evening.

The Gunners are winless in three Premier League games, and that streak is extended to five in all comepitions, drawing away at Guimaraes and being dumped out by Liverpool in the Carabao Cup. Despite only losing twice this season, both of those defeats have come away from home and they've only won once in five games on their travels this season. The team is basically in disarray, with attacking stats down on last season and comparably worse from Arsene Wenger's last season.

Unai Emery's attempt to make Arsenal more solid in defence has failed miserably; they have kept just two clean sheets in their last 24 away league games. Leicester are on a high and a serious contender for the Top Four, the visitors can be in for a tough evening.

I can't believe you can still back Leicester at better than evens for the match result, but I think they'll easily dominate the north London club so I'll be taking the -1 handicap on them to win at 11/4.

Jasmine Baba 2019-20 P/L: -£18.70