Infogol Expected Goals Euro Acca: Back Bayern in 17/2 fourfold

Infogol's analyst is back with the best bets across Europe, using expected goals (xG) data to select a nicely priced weekend fourfold...

PSG to bounce back in style

Brest vs PSG
Saturday, 16:30 GMT

PSG were shocked at Dijon last weekend, and will be looking to bounce back here in another road game.

Brest are flying high at the moment, sitting ninth after 12 matches, but were beaten on the road by Amiens last weekend, and rightly so after a below par performance.

In fact, Brest have been one of the bigger over-performances in France this season, as while they sit 9th, they rank as the second worst team in the league on xG.

Their process is that of team that we would expect to be relegated (0.84 xGF, 1.49 xGA per game), with an especially poor attacking output, so will likely struggle to lay a glove on PSG.

As mentioned already, PSG were beaten 1-0 by Dijon last weekend, but that result didn't tell the whole story, as Les Parisiens absolutely hammered the Mustard, racking up nearly 4 xGF without scoring (xG: DIJ 0.84 - 3.96 PSG).

Their process remains incredible (2.82 xGF, 0.59 xGA per game), and a clean sheet against Club Brugge in the Champions League in midweek bodes well ahead of this game.

Infogol suggests it's likely that we won't see both teams scoring here, calculating a 57% (1.75) chance of BTTS 'no', so the 1.85 (54%) available on the Exchange represents value.

A rare clean-sheet for Inter

Inter Milan vs Verona
Saturday, 17:00 GMT

Inter Milan continue to keep pace with Juventus at the top of Serie A following a fully deserved win against a good Bologna side last weekend, a game which they were unfortunate not to keep a clean sheet (xG: BOL 0.46 - 2.60 INT).

Antonio Conte's side were beaten in the Champions League in midweek, a difficult defeat to take having been 2-0 up at Dortmund, so expect a reaction in this game.

Inter have ranked as the best team in the league this season according to expected goals, a place higher than Juventus, and boast the best defensive process in Serie A (0.99 xGA per game).

Verona have made an excellent start to the season, and come in this game on the back of successive wins over Parma (xG: PAR 1.36 - 0.35 VER) and Brescia (xG: VER 0.89 - 1.02 BRE), but were fortunate to win both.

They have only hit the net nine times in 11 games this season, pretty much in-line with their xG total, so don't create many good chances in matches, and Infogol expects them to have trouble breaking Inter down here.

We calculate a 58% (1.72) chance of BTTS 'no' at the Giuseppe Meazza, meaning there a is a decent amount of value in the 1.91 (52%) available on the Exchange.

No manager, no problem

Bayern Munich vs Dortmund
Saturday, 17:30 GMT

Der Klassiker takes centre stage this weekend, as a now manager-less Bayern Munich host Dortmund, with just a point separating the two sides, though neither lead the Bundesliga.

A 5-1 defeat to Frankfurt last weekend was the final nail in the coffin for Niko Kovač as Bayern Munich, and while the scoreline and result was a terrible one, they did play against a very good team for 80 minutes with 10-men.

I feel as though Kovač has been hard done by at Bayern, fighting an uphill battle ever since he took the job, and they rightly won the league last season according to expected goals, and come into GW11 ranked as the best team in the Bundesliga on xG - despite that 5-1 defeat.

Kovač is gone, but it didn't seem to bother Bayern too much in the Champions League, as they hammered Olympiakos (xG: BMU 3.28 - 0.10 OLY) despite the 2-0 scoreline suggesting it was a tight game.

They have the best underlying process in the Bundesliga by a long way this season (2.45 xGF, 1.38 xGA per game), and if they maintain the same process as under Kovač, Bayern will continue to be the major force in Germany.

Dortmund will be high on confidence coming into this huge game following a 3-0 win against previously unbeaten Wolfsburg and a come-from-behind win against Inter Milan in midweek.

That 3-0 win over Wolfsburg was extremely fortunate though (xG: DOR 1.88 - 1.70 WOL), and followed an extremely poor performance in the Revierderby against Schalke (xG: SCH 1.05 - 0.38 DOR).

Lucien Favre's side rank as the fourth best team in the Bundesliga after 10 matches, with a much poorer process than Bayern (1.83 xGF, 1.25 xGA per game), as they are, on average 0.48 xGD worst per game than Bayern.

It is a huge surprise to Infogol to see that Bayern Munich can be backed at 1.61 (62%) on the Exchange to win this game, and that represents a bit of value, as the model calculates the hosts have a 66% (1.52) chance of getting the three points.

Another low-scoring Barca game

Barcelona vs Celta Vigo
Saturday, 20:00 GMT

It has been another strange week for Barcelona, following up a disappointing 3-1 defeat at Levante last weekend with a goalless draw at home to Slavia Prague in the Champions League.

You feel as though the pressure is mounting on Ernesto Valverde, as not only have the results been poor this season, their style of play and performances have been poor also.

Somehow, even with three defeats in La Liga this season, Barca sit top of a very congested table, with just five points separating Valencia in 13th and Barca.

Based on xG, Barca have ranked as only the 6th best team in the league this season, being extremely fortunate to have scored 29 goals this season (18.76 xGF), with their process below par for a Barcelona team (1.70 xGF, 1.23 xGA per game).

Fortunately for Barca and Valverde, a strange week ends with a game at home to a Celta Vigo team that are hugely struggling this season.

Celta are on a four-match losing streak in La Liga, and sit 3rd bottom of the table after 12 games, with their latest defeat at home to Getafe especially worrying from an attacking perspective (xG: CEL 0.19 - 0.43 GET).

Fran Escriba is under pressure also heading into this game, as on the face of it Celta have a decent starting XI that includes the likes of ex-Barcelona duo Denis Suarez and Rafinha, a strike partnership of Iago Aspas and Santi Mina and highly rated wide players Pione Sisto and Brais Mendez.

They are unfortunate to be so low in the table though, as according to expected goals they rank 13th, and their process isn't as bad as their results would suggest (1.11 xGF, 1.35 xGA per game), so this has the potential be another potential banana skin for Barca.

We think Barca are too short at 1.22 (82%) to win this game, giving them a 68% (1.47) chance, but I don't rate Celta enough to recommend a lay.

Instead, we could see another tight and low-scoring Barca game, and there is a fair bit of value in backing under 3.5 goals at 1.80 (55%), given Infogol rate it as a 60% (1.67) chance.