Saturday 7:25pm at MCG
The season is quickly slipping away for both Collingwood and Hawthorn making this match a must-win affair for both.
Form
It is astonishing to think Collingwood are just 2-6 and anchored in 17th on the ladder considering some of their performances which include wins in Sydney and against Geelong and close losses to GWS and the Bulldogs. All six of Collingwood’s losses this year have come by margins of four goals or fewer. The Pies rank seventh in defence but their scoring is a poor 15th.
It is astonishing to think Collingwood are just 2-6 and anchored in 17th on the ladder considering some of their performances which include wins in Sydney and against Geelong and close losses to GWS and the Bulldogs. All six of Collingwood’s losses this year have come by margins of four goals or fewer. The Pies rank seventh in defence but their scoring is a poor 15th.
Hawthorn have lifted their record to 3-5 on the back of back-to-back wins against Melbourne and the Brisbane Lions, the latter by 38 points. The Hawks rank a lowly 14th in attack and 17th in defence, conceding 110-plus on five occasions this year. Hawthorn have posted more than 95 just twice this year.
Stats That Matter
– Hawthorn have won 9 straight against Collingwood dating back to 2012, posting 100-plus in all of them.
– The Hawks have covered 7 of 9 against the Magpies since 2012.
– 8 of the last 9 Pies-Hawks games have gone over the total.
– Collingwood are 33-45 ATS at the MCG since 2012.
– The under is 16-12 when the Magpies are favoured by 18 or fewer at the MCG.
– Hawthorn are 38-32 ATS at the MCG since 2012.
– The Hawks are 7-2 ATS as an outsider at the MCG since 2012.
– Collingwood have covered 8 of their last 11 night games at the MCG.
– Hawthorn are 18-11 ATS in night games at the MCG.
– The under is 14-5 in night games after Collingwood conceded 100-plus.
– Collingwood have covered just 38% of games as a favourite since 2012.
– The Hawks have covered 7 of 9 against the Magpies since 2012.
– 8 of the last 9 Pies-Hawks games have gone over the total.
– Collingwood are 33-45 ATS at the MCG since 2012.
– The under is 16-12 when the Magpies are favoured by 18 or fewer at the MCG.
– Hawthorn are 38-32 ATS at the MCG since 2012.
– The Hawks are 7-2 ATS as an outsider at the MCG since 2012.
– Collingwood have covered 8 of their last 11 night games at the MCG.
– Hawthorn are 18-11 ATS in night games at the MCG.
– The under is 14-5 in night games after Collingwood conceded 100-plus.
– Collingwood have covered just 38% of games as a favourite since 2012.
Betting Data
2017 Line: Collingwood 4-4, Hawthorn 2-6
2017 Over-Under: Collingwood 3-5, Hawthorn 2-6
2017 Line: Collingwood 4-4, Hawthorn 2-6
2017 Over-Under: Collingwood 3-5, Hawthorn 2-6
What To Expect
Collingwood are absolute poison as a favourite and with Hawthorn finding some form over the last month are the team to bet. Don’t mind the injury crisis that has swept the Hawks. They have historically bested the Magpies, they are great plays as an underdog and are a good cover team at the MCG at night. Collingwood cover just 38% of games as a favourite.
Collingwood are absolute poison as a favourite and with Hawthorn finding some form over the last month are the team to bet. Don’t mind the injury crisis that has swept the Hawks. They have historically bested the Magpies, they are great plays as an underdog and are a good cover team at the MCG at night. Collingwood cover just 38% of games as a favourite.
How It’s Shaping Up
Hawthorn by 6
Hawthorn by 6
Recommended Bet
Hawthorn +12.5 ($1.91)
Hawthorn +12.5 ($1.91)
Player Markets
Tom Mitchell has broke 130 in Hawthorn’s last two wins and is averaging 126 for the year. He looks big value this week to make it a hat-trick of 130-plus scores. Mitchell had 30 touches and three goals the last time he played Collingwood.
Tom Mitchell has broke 130 in Hawthorn’s last two wins and is averaging 126 for the year. He looks big value this week to make it a hat-trick of 130-plus scores. Mitchell had 30 touches and three goals the last time he played Collingwood.
Recommended Bet
Tom Mitchell 130+ Fantasy Points ($2.15)
Tom Mitchell 130+ Fantasy Points ($2.15)
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