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New Zealand Warriors v St George Illawarra Dragons
Friday, May 19, 6pm (AEST), FMG Stadium, Waikato
New Zealand Warriors v St George Illawarra Dragons
Friday, May 19, 6pm (AEST), FMG Stadium, Waikato
The Warriors response to last week’s capitulation against the Panthers will hold the key to this contest. The Warriors gave up a 22-point halftime lead to go scoreless in the second half and lose the contest 36-28. Meanwhile, the Dragons were very gallant in their 18-14 loss against the defending premiers and were unlucky not to get the better of the Sharks. It was a gritty effort considering the Red V were missing key troops in Gareth Widdop and Josh Dugan. The Warriors will be without Simon Mannering, Manu Vatuvei and Solomone Kata for the clash against the Dragons. Will the demons of last week be too much for the hot-and-cold Warriors?
History
The Dragons have dominated the Warriors historically with 20 wins in the 25 clashes including a 26-12 win in Round 4 this year. New Zealand have defeated St George Illawarra just once away from Mt Smart and not since 2003.
The Dragons have dominated the Warriors historically with 20 wins in the 25 clashes including a 26-12 win in Round 4 this year. New Zealand have defeated St George Illawarra just once away from Mt Smart and not since 2003.
Form
New Zealand enter this off one of the most embarrassing defeats in club history, a humiliating 36-28 loss after leading 28-6 with 37 minutes left to play. The Warriors have now won just one of their last four. New Zealand rank bottom five in both attack and defence. St George Illawarra’s big start to the season has hit a snag with three straight losses but those have come against last year’s Grand Finalists and the top two teams in the premiership as well as fellow Top 4 team the Sydney Roosters. The Saints have conceded more than 18 points just three times this season and rank fifth in defence and second in attack. Their scoring has fallen from an average of 27.2 over the first seven rounds to 16.0 over the last three.
New Zealand enter this off one of the most embarrassing defeats in club history, a humiliating 36-28 loss after leading 28-6 with 37 minutes left to play. The Warriors have now won just one of their last four. New Zealand rank bottom five in both attack and defence. St George Illawarra’s big start to the season has hit a snag with three straight losses but those have come against last year’s Grand Finalists and the top two teams in the premiership as well as fellow Top 4 team the Sydney Roosters. The Saints have conceded more than 18 points just three times this season and rank fifth in defence and second in attack. Their scoring has fallen from an average of 27.2 over the first seven rounds to 16.0 over the last three.
Key Matchup
Issac Luke v Cameron McInnes. Luke has been inconsistent at best this season and it comes as no surprise as that is the perfect word to describe the Warriors. He has been lacking any punch around the ruck and looks a shadow of the player he was at Souths. At the other end of the spectrum., McInnes has been sensational for the Dragons and is one of the signings of the season. He has been a rock in defence and has given the Dragons plenty of direction around the ruck.
Issac Luke v Cameron McInnes. Luke has been inconsistent at best this season and it comes as no surprise as that is the perfect word to describe the Warriors. He has been lacking any punch around the ruck and looks a shadow of the player he was at Souths. At the other end of the spectrum., McInnes has been sensational for the Dragons and is one of the signings of the season. He has been a rock in defence and has given the Dragons plenty of direction around the ruck.
Stats That Matter
New Zealand are 3-7 ATS with a 6-4 under record while St George Illawarra are 7-3 ATS with a 5-5 total record. The Dragons have dominated the Warriors historically with 20 wins in the 25 clashes including a 26-12 win in Round 4 this year. New Zealand have defeated St George Illawarra just once away from Mt Smart and not since 2003. The Warriors have scored more than 20 points in just 2 of their last 12 against the Dragons. The Saints have scored 22-plus in 8 of their last 11 against the Warriors. New Zealand have won just 3 of their last 12 in New Zealand away from Mt Smart. The over is 13-5 in Warriors games away from Mt Smart since 2014. The over is 17-7 overall when the Warriors are favoured by more than a converted try. The Dragons have covered 12 of the last 19 interstate games with a 13-6 under record.
New Zealand are 3-7 ATS with a 6-4 under record while St George Illawarra are 7-3 ATS with a 5-5 total record. The Dragons have dominated the Warriors historically with 20 wins in the 25 clashes including a 26-12 win in Round 4 this year. New Zealand have defeated St George Illawarra just once away from Mt Smart and not since 2003. The Warriors have scored more than 20 points in just 2 of their last 12 against the Dragons. The Saints have scored 22-plus in 8 of their last 11 against the Warriors. New Zealand have won just 3 of their last 12 in New Zealand away from Mt Smart. The over is 13-5 in Warriors games away from Mt Smart since 2014. The over is 17-7 overall when the Warriors are favoured by more than a converted try. The Dragons have covered 12 of the last 19 interstate games with a 13-6 under record.
Final Thoughts
The +6 start for the Dragons is simply too good to ignore. They have a dominant record against the Warriors and their defence will keep them in plenty of matches this season. The Wolf thinks last week’s demoralising loss to the Panthers would have broken Stephen Kearney’s men and they’ll struggle to get up for this contest.
The +6 start for the Dragons is simply too good to ignore. They have a dominant record against the Warriors and their defence will keep them in plenty of matches this season. The Wolf thinks last week’s demoralising loss to the Panthers would have broken Stephen Kearney’s men and they’ll struggle to get up for this contest.
How It’s Shaping Up
St George Illawarra by 4
St George Illawarra by 4
Best Bet
St George Illawarra +6 ($1.91)
St George Illawarra +6 ($1.91)
Other Recommended Bets
St George Illawarra 1-12 ($4)
St George Illawarra 1-12 ($4)
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