ATP Cincinnati Masters Day 2: Tiebreaks likely between Karlovic and Vesely

Zverev shocks Federer to give us a 12/1 outright winner

Three matches took place yesterday on the ATP Tour, with both of the two in Cincinnati predictably serve orientated, as I mentioned would be likely in the outright preview - there were just two service breaks across three sets in the match between Ryan Harrison and Gilles Muller, while a solitary break and a tiebreak was enough for John Isner to progress at the expense of Victor Troicki. I certainly expect this theme to continue throughout the week, and there's an opportunity today that I will discuss later in this preview.

Last night's other match saw a shock as Alexander Zverev took the Montreal title, defeating Roger Federer in two straight sets, and this saw our 12/1 outright selection cover both parts of the bet, to give us a very successful week in Canada.

Following Federer's lacklustre display in the final, he's been eased to 2.84on the Exchange for glory in Cincinnati - he started shorter in Montreal last week - with Zverev currently at 7.00, significantly shorter than he began last week. However, it would be a big ask for the young German to win three consecutive tournaments in as many weeks.

Smith can keep it close in quick conditions against Gasquet

In today's action, my focus on value centres around some of the earlier matches on the card, with action starting at 4pm UK time.

First up, Richard Gasquet takes on the qualifier, John-Patrick Smith, and the Frenchman is a heavy 1.13 favourite to get the win, although my model slightly disagreed with the market, making him 1.30.

Gasquet has only played five matches outdoors on hard court this year, with a 3-2 record, and across all surfaces in the last 3 months, has a solid but unspectacular9-5 record (108.9% combined hold/break percentage), but it's also worth mentioning that many of those wins were as an extremely heavy favourite.

Opponent Smith has impressed in qualifying, beating Vasek Pospisil in straight sets as a big underdog, before coming from a set down to defeat Christian Harrison yesterday, and he's something of a fast-court specialist, as his strong record on grass illustrates.

The quick conditions here certainly will suit Smith more than the average hard court event, and are likely to be able to assist him in keeping the match close and respectable, at the very least. The game handicap line of +4.5 is still forming on the Exchange, but if the price goes in excess of 2.30 (it's currently 2.24 taking this for a small stake can be considered.

Tiebreaks likely between Karlovic and Vesely

Also at 4pm, Ivo Karlovic takes on Jiri Vesely, and the Sportsbook is taking a bit of a chance pricing 7-6 to either player in the first set at 7/5, when my model made it around a 56% likelihood - this recommendation is simply a mathematical discrepancy for what I expect to be an extremely serve orientated match.

Medvedev and Mischa Zverev also some value in opening round matches

Among other action, the clash between Fabio Fognini and Daniil Medvedev is of interest, with both players having a high potential level - the market is finding it difficult to split the two, but I prefer the Russian - while I suspect that Mischa Zverev will benefit more from conditions than opponent Fernando Verdasco. The Spaniard, Verdasco, is the slight favourite but my model virtually reversed these prices, favouring the older Zverev brother.

Recommended Bets

Back John-Patrick Smith +4.5 games at prices greater than 2.30
Back 7-6 to either player in the Ivo Karlovic/Jiri Vesely match at 7/5 with the Sportsbook