NRL PreviewBrisbane Broncos v St George Illawarra Dragons Friday, August 18, 7:50pm (AEST) at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
The Broncos have brought back the razzle dazzle and currently have the best attack in the NRL. They’ve scored 86 points across their past two matches and will be looking to cement their spot in the Top 2 with a win over the Red V. The next fortnight will decide if the Dragons play finals football and a win over the Broncos combined with a loss by any of the Panthers, Sea Eagles and Cowboys will see them slide into the Top 8. Ben Hunt will join the Dragons next season and will be primed for a big performance against his new club.
HistoryThe Broncos have won 11 of the last 12 against the Dragons including three straight. They’ve also won nine straight against St George Illawarra at Suncorp including a 26-0 win in Round 6 last year.
FormBrisbane have ascended to second on the ladder with a 14-7 record with the best attack and the third best defence in the league. The Broncos have won six of their last eight, including back-to-back 54-0 and 32-10 wins over Gold Coast and Cronulla. St George Illawarra are ninth on the ladder with an 11-10 record. They have won just three of their last nine and have lost six straight away from their suburban home grounds. The Saints have posted at least 24 points in three of their last four.
Key MatchupAnthony Milford v Gareth Widdop: Milford has relished the role of chief playmaker at the Broncos since Ben Hunt’s move to hooker. He created three line-break assists and one try-assist in the Broncos’ big win over the Sharks last week. Widdop was in everything in the big win over the Titans last week and The Wolf thinks the addition of Kurt Mann in the halves takes some of the pressure off Widdop. Widdop ran the ball 21 times for 140 metres against the Titans and is at his best when he is a dual-threat against the opposition.
Stats That Matter– Brisbane are 12-9 ATS with a 16-5 over record while St George Illawarra are 11-10 ATS with an 11-10 over number.
– Brisbane have won 11 of the last 12 against the Dragons including three straight.
– The Broncos have won nine on end against St George Illawarra at Suncorp.
– None of the last four matches have topped 38 points.
– Brisbane are 20-10 ATS at Suncorp when favoured by more than a converted try while they are 14-6 ATS when favoured by double digits.
– The Broncos have gone over in 14 of their last 17 games at Suncorp and are 32-18 over at the ground since 2014.
– Brisbane are 23-14 ATS after conceding 12 or fewer points with a 23-14 over number.
The Dragons are 14-8 ATS with a 15-7 under record interstate.
Final ThoughtsThe Wolf is expecting an expansive game here between the best attacking side (Broncos) in the NRL and 4th best attacking side (Dragons). The Broncos have gone over in 14 of their last 17 games at Suncorp, while the Dragons have posted at least 24 points in three of their last four.
How It’s Shaping UpBrisbane by 6
Best Bet Over 39.5 ($1.88)
Other Recommended Bets St George Illawarra +10 ($1.91)
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