PFA Player of the Year Betting: Eriksen and De Bruyne with every chance

The 2018 PFA Player of the Year award is pretty far away. Given it's not handed out until late April, we're only a little closer to finding out the winner of that one as we are the winner of the Premier League itself. But the early bird catches the worm and if we're going to get on a couple of players at big prices before their performances see their odds come in, now is the time.

Trends

The last three seasons have seen a player from the team who ended up winning the league picking up the award. So the Chelsea duo of N'Golo Kante (2016/17) & Eden Hazard (2014/15) and sandwiched in between them, Riyad Mahrez of Leicester (2015/16). In the seven editions before that, on two occasions, the player came from the Championship-winning side and on five, he didn't. So a perfect split of 5-5 in terms of the award winner playing for the league winner.

Then there's the curious case of Gareth Bale. On both occasions that he won it - 2010/11 and 2012/13 - Spurs didn't finish in the top three so it's testament to just how good he was in those two seasons because all the other winners in the last ten years came from sides finishing at least in the top three. So a strong trend towards your man being in a side finishing on the Premier League podium.

Based on my own assessment of how the season will unfold, that means the player will come from Manchester City, Manchester United or Tottenham.

Kante's win last season was a refreshing one in that 15 of the previous 16 winners were all forwards or attacking midfielders. The exception there? John Terry, who won it in 2004/05. Since the turn of the century he's the only defender to have claimed it and there have been no keepers feature (you need to go back to Peter Shilton in 1977/78 for the previous case of a goalie winning it) post 2000. So in all likelihood, the winner will be a player in a forward position again.

Favourites to give a miss

If Romelu Lukaku plays like he did yesterday and Manchester United improve dramatically as a whole in relation to last season (very possible) then it's hard to see that the big Belgian won't be there or thereabouts. But [6.5] is far too short at this stage of the season.

Eden Hazard 9.00 is written off on the basis that I think Chelsea could well have a poor season and he's hardly the player most up for it when the team struggles.

I think that much like with the top goalscorer market Sergio Aguero 11.00 and Gabriel Jesus 17.00 will effectively cancel each other out. The team will be better for them both being there but it will limit their chances to shine as individuals.

Harry Kane at 11.00? He's got a good chance given he's won the last two top goalscorer awards and that if he does so again, he might be due a win for this award but I'll swerve him anyway.

I simply can't see Philippe Coutinho 21.00 or Alexis Sanchez 26.00 having outstanding seasons after being told to stay put (for the time being at least) rather than getting the moves they wanted.

So who are we on?

Bizarrely, despite winning two titles and finishing in the Top 3 in six of the last seven seasons, no Manchester City player has won it since the revolution in the blue side of Manchester. You would have thought that one of Carlos Tevez, Robinho, David Silva, Sergio Aguero or even Vincent Kompany would have been rewarded but, no.

And that's a trend we'll have to overcome for Kevin De Bruyne to come good at 13.00. I think that out of all of the stars packed into that City side, he's the only certain starter and arguably the player Pep Guardiola would least like to be without. Last season he played 2877 minutes (84% of the maximum amount) league minutes, scoring six goals and providing a remarkable 21 assists.

He may not have rewarded Fantasy Football managers with points at the weekend but he was excellent, keeping the ball moving at all times, running into the box, creating space, making things happen. This could well be his best season yet and if City do go on to win it, his chances will be further improved.

A very similar sort of player is Christian Eriksen. Last season he had an almost identical return of eight goals and 20 assists over 3159 minutes (92% of the possible amount) which means that a) he fell just below KDB's return when you look at how he had considerably more game time and b) his Manager hates being without him as much as Guardioladislikes not having the former Chelsea man on the pitch. Eriksen did start the season in style, assisting both of Tottenham's goals as they beat Newcastle and it's been notable how, despite being a stand-out player for the Lillywhites in each of the four seasons he's been at the club, his influence just keeps on growing.

Recommended Bets

Back Kevin de Bruyne to be PFA player of the Year @ 13.00 
Back Christian Eriksen to be PFA Player of the Year @ 26.00