Serie A Betting Season Preview: Milan to improve but Napoli and Juve to battle it out

Bonucci capture a coup - but too soon to back Milan

The most common question that I've been asked this summer by those who take a casual interest in Italian football has revolved around whether AC Milan will win the title. I lean pretty strongly towards a "no", but the interest that the Rossoneri's massive investment has brought to the League can only be a good thing.

Milan's capture of an unhappy Leo Bonucci was the transfer coup of the summer, and the former Juve man will be the rock upon which Vincenzo Montella's team is built. They should be solid defensively, with Andrea Conti, Mateo Musacchio and Ricardo Rodriguez also joining, and I really like Frank Kessie, who has arrived from Atalanta.

I do, though, subscribe to the view that you can't build a title-winning team overnight, and have enough doubts about Vincenzo Montella and Milan's attacking options (how good will Andre Silva be in Serie A?) to swerve them as title winners at around about 7.60. It will be a project to enjoy, though, and the investment will make sure that Milan are a top five team again.

Top five looks set in stone

And it will come down to five: we had the joy last year of Atalanta's remarkable rise, and indeed of Lazio's surprising stickability, but I just don't see a contender outside Juve, Napoli, Roma, Inter and Milan. Fiorentina look markedly weaker, so do Atalanta and Lazio, and there doesn't seem to be a sleeper who can come through and challenge for the top five places.

Juventus trade as solid favourites at around the 1.92 mark, and that's right: they may have lost Bonucci, but they've replaced him with Medhi Benatia and Daniele Rugani, and while Benatia will start the season alongside a maturing Daniele Rugani. Mattia De Sciglio makes them stronger at full-back, and Juve look infinitely more powerful going forward, now that Federico Bernardeschi and Douglas Costa have joined. They'll play in a three (with Paulo Dybala) behind Gonzalo Higuain, and will have comfortably the best front four in Italy.

Napoli to get off to a flyer

When you look at the depth of squad, it's so hard to see anyone getting ahead of Juve, but the team that will surely come closest is Napoli. They ended up third last season, finished like a train, and with a relatively easy start in terms of fixtures, I can see them top after four weeks. They haven't signed anyone of significance, but they have secured their top players on new contracts, and Arkadiusz Milik, injured for so much of last season, will feel like a new signing. They haven't lost since February, are on a run of five straight wins, and look set to come closest to Juventus, but need the self-belief to take them that step further.

Inter have Luciano Spalletti in charge and that will improve them, Roma have lost him and that will probably make them worse. I enjoyed the work that Eusebio Di Francesco did with Sassuolo, and he's back at his spiritual home in Rome, but Gregoire Defrel is no Mo Salah, and much though Maxime Gonalons and Lorenzo Pellegrini will strengthen them, I'm unsure about one or two other signings, and the ability of the Ccach at this rarified level.

To round off the top five, if anyone can improve Inter and sort out the madness, then it has to be Spalletti: he's a brilliant coach, but Inter haven't recruited as they needed to and there are still several question marks about them. They remain over-reliant on the mercurial Mauro Icardi, and the signings of Borja Valero and Matias Vecino hint at midfield stability, rather than anything more inspiring.

It'll be quite a battle, and it will come down to Juve and Napoli, with Roma weakening, Milan improving, and Inter rounding off the top five. There are some Serie A specials in the Sportsbook, and I like supporting Napoli's gunslingers to finish in the top two and also to be top scorers again. In terms of the outright, though, life goes on after Leo Bonucci, and it has, once again, to be Juve.

Recommended Bets
Back Juventus to win Serie A @ 1.92
Back Napoli to finish in the Top Two @ 11/10
Back Napoli to be Serie A top scorers @ 15/8