Title Race
As curtain-raisers go, the first leg of the Spanish Super Cup between Barcelona and Real Madrid could hardly have been more promising. There were stunning goals, amusing errors, controversial decisions and a Cristiano Ronaldo cameo that will live long in the memory for reasons good and bad. It bodes well for the season ahead.
Naturally, Madrid start the season as favourites to hold onto the title. Odds of 2.00 might look a bit skinny at first glance - they were even lower before Ronaldo was handed a five-game ban for his push on the referee at the Camp Nou - but it's hard to argue given how the summer has panned out for the Big Two. Things have perhaps not gone perfectly for Los Merengues, but they've gone a whole lot worse for Barça.
It has been a slightly odd transfer window for Zinedine Zidane, whose interest in Kylian Mbappé has - thus far, at least - come to nothing. The departure of Álvaro Morata, a player who could no longer wait around for a golden future in the capital, was inevitable but weakens the squad considerably: Borja Mayoral, back after an underwhelming loan spell at Wolfsburg, is now the back-up striker. Danilo, while no superstar, provided useful cover at the back.
Elsewhere, though, there has been an exciting injection of youth. Marcos Llorente and Jésus Vallejo are back from promising stints with Alavés and Eintracht Frankfurt respectively, while in Dani Ceballos and Theo Hernández, Madrid have signed two of the most exciting up-and-coming players in the division. With more to come from the silky Marco Asensio, the future is very bright indeed.
And so to Barcelona, who are one 25-year-old global superstar lighter than they were last season. Their bank balance no doubt looks pretty healthy, but in pure footballing terms it is hard to see Neymar's exit as anything other than a hammer blow to a side that, lest we forget, already looked short in key areas in 2016/17.
Philippe Coutinho may come in, which would help offset the loss in creativity, and it would clearly be lunacy to write off any team that boasts a frontline of Lionel Messi and Luis Suárez. But as things stand, it's understandable that Ernesto Valverde's charges are 2.14second-favourites.
Atlético Madrid might reasonably consider themselves the third horse in this race given their 2013/14 title win and near miss in 2015/16. But odds of 25.00 - up from 11.00 12 months ago - reflect their downturn in fortunes last season: they finished fully 15 points adrift and lost a little of their lustre in the Champions League, too. Throw in a transfer ban and it's hard to see them derailing their city rivals.
Top Four
With two, perhaps even three, of the top four spots pretty much accounted for at the outset (Atleti are 1.08 shots to finish in the Champions League places), there are a lot of teams aiming for one vacancy in this market. It has tended to be a fairly level playing field in recent years, too, with Sevilla, Valencia, Villarreal (twice), Athletic Club, Real Sociedad and Málaga all having finished fourth this decade.
Sevilla look the most likely candidates this year at 2.00. Eduardo Berizzo was a canny addition in the dugout and the Andalusians have allowed him to splash the cash - much of it from the sale of Vitolo - on a battalion of new players. Éver Banega and Jésus Navasmake welcome returns, while Nolito, Simon Kjær and Luis Muriel all look like astute additions to what was already a solid squad.
Athletic's squad is unchanged but the loss of Valverde is certain to have a destabilising effect, meaning they are an unappealing pick at 4.30, while a top-four spot is a lot to ask of Valencia - trading at 6.20 - given their well-documented struggles last season. Fran Escribá's Villarreal look more likely challengers at 4.50, with Espanyol, who showed great promise but lacked a bit of consistency last term, the most attractive long shots at 10.00.
Top Goalscorer
First up, the outsiders: Antoine Griezmann, Karim Benzema and Gareth Bale are all viewed as dark horses by the market and can be backed at 21.00, 26.00 and 31.00respectively to take the Trofeo Pichichi. There may be some small interest in taking those prices on, but the likelihood is that the gong will go to one of Ronaldo, Messi and Suárez.
Messi is the incumbent here, having notched 37 times to Ronaldo's 25 and Suárez's 29. With Neymar gone, there's every chance that he'll shoulder even more of the responsibility - and take more set pieces - this time, so it's no great surprise that he is 2.10 favourite to make it five top-scorer awards in five years. Suárez will get his share, too, but 2.92 looks a little short for a player who doesn't take penalties (Ronaldo and Messi netted six apiece last term).
Ronaldo showed in the first leg of the Super Cup that he remains in fantastic physical shape. But Zidane was careful with him last term, resting him at key moments to ensure he reached the home straight in peak condition, and we should expect a similar tactic this term. That could mean he misses the odd opportunity to fill his boots against weaker opposition and, coupled with his early-season suspension, makes us reticent to take on the 2.62 available on him.
Relegation
Newly-promoted Getafe and Girona are both odds-on to make a swift return to the second flight. The latter have been boosted by the arrival of Douglas Luiz and Marlos Moreno on loan from Manchester City, but have no experience at the top level and may find the going especially tough. Levante, who waltzed to the Segunda title, should be more solid at the back - they conceded just 32 goals in 42 league games all season - and have a young, hungry squad, yet are still 2.42 shots to go down.
Of those who were in Primera last term, Leganés are predictably seen as the most likely to be dragged into trouble at 2.10. Deportivo La Coruña may also be in the mix again, but Real Betis ought to be aiming for midtable; they may have lost Ceballos and talismanic forward Rubén Castro, but in have come Ryad Boudebouz, Cristian Tello and Sergio León among others.
Recommended Bets
Back Real Madrid to win La Liga at 2.00
Back Lionel Messi to be top scorer at 2.10
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