Saturday, August 19, 3pm (AEST) at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
Key MatchupBrock Lamb v Cameron Munster: Lamb has been sensational in the Knights’ winning run of three matches. He’s scored a try in each of the past three matches and has five try-assists across the winning streak. He’s playing with plenty of confidence at the moment and the Knights hierarchy will be hoping they’ve found the man to lead them forward out of the doldrums. Munster hasn’t played since the Round 21 match against the Sea Eagles and by all reports will make his return this week. The Storm have been flying in his absence, but he’s a star on the rise and could be the X-factor in the Storm going all the way this season.
Stats That Matter– Newcastle are 11-10 ATS with a 13-8 under record while Melbourne are 11-10 ATS with an 11-10 under number.
– Melbourne have won three straight against the Knights and have won three of the last four against the Knights in Newcastle.
– Since 2014, home underdogs of 12 or more are 9-12 ATS but Newcastle are 7-4 ATS with a 7-4 under record.
The Knights are 14-8 ATS as a home underdog in afternoon games since 2014 with 13 covers in their last 16.
– Home underdogs off a win are 20-11 ATS in day games since 2014 and 64-43 ATS overall while home underdogs of 6 or more are 19-5 ATS off a win in the final six rounds of the year dating back to 2008.
– Melbourne are 5-10 ATS as a road favourite of 4.5 or more.
Final ThoughtsThe Knights left most experts gobsmacked with their shock win over the Eels last week and would love nothing more than to knock of the NRL Premiership favourites here. The Storm are easily the benchmark in the NRL and are too professional to let this one slip. However, the Knights will be gallant and the 12.5 line looks very big considering the Storm are coming off a tough finals-like encounter with the Roosters. The Wolf is happy to be on the home side with the big start.
How It’s Shaping UpMelbourne by 8
Best Bet
Newcastle +12.5 ($1.91)
Newcastle +12.5 ($1.91)
Other Recommended Bets
Under 43.5 ($1.88)
Under 43.5 ($1.88)
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