Essendon v Nth Melbourne
Saturday 1:45pm at Etihad Stadium

Rivals Essendon and North Melbourne square off on Saturday afternoon in what is always a brutal and hard-fought affair.

Form
Essendon are 10th on the ladder with an 8-8 record. They rank fifth in scoring and 10th in defence. The Bombers have won two on end with big wins over Collingwood and St Kilda after an embarrassing home loss to Brisbane. Essendon have posted 100-plus in six of their last nine matches.

North Melbourne are 17th on the ladder with just four wins from their 16 games. Their attack has been reasonable ranking eighth but they have posted the second-worst defensive record. The Kangaroos have lost six on the trot with their last match a 70-point loss to Port Adelaide. North have conceded at least 86 points in 10 straight.

Stats That Matter

– North have won the last three over Essendon, all by margins of 65 or greater.
– Six of the last seven Bombers-Kangaroos matches have gone under the total.
– Essendon have covered eight of their last 11 at Etihad.
– The under has hit in 7 of the last 8 Bombers matches at Essendon.
– North have covered just 3 of their last 12 at Etihad.
– North are 10-2 ATS at Etihad getting more than three goals start.
– Essendon are 7-18 ATS at Etihad as a favourite.
– North are 11-3 ATS in Melbourne getting more than three goals start since 2012.

Betting Data
2017 Line: Essendon 10-6, North Melbourne 6-10
2017 Over-Under: Essendon 8-8, North Melbourne 9-7

What To Expect
North Melbourne are five-chip specials here and if there was a sixth chip, we’d throw that in the middle too. North have embarrassed the Bombers at their last three meetings and they rarely miss a cover as a big outsider in Melbourne. The Bombers have a horrific record as a favourite at Etihad. North should not only cover, they should win this off the stick.

How It’s Shaping Up
North Melbourne by 18

Recommended Bet
North Melbourne +24.5 ($1.91)


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