AFL Preview: Collingwood v West Coast

Collingwood v West Coast
Sunday 3:20pm at Etihad Stadium

Collingwood’s fading final hopes rely on a win here against an eighth-placed West Coast clinging to a Top 8 berth.

Form
Collingwood bounced back with a much-needed win against the Suns on the Gold Coast last week, ending a four-game losing streak. The Magpies are now up to 14th on the ladder with six wins and 10 losses. Collingwood rank 11th in scoring and 13th in defence. The Magpies have conceded at least 85 points in six straight games.

West Coast have won three of their last five games and enter this off a dominant 74-44 Derby win but have not put back-to-back wins together since Round 8. The Eagles are now eighth on the ladder with a 9-7 record. The Eagles have kept opponents to 80 points or fewer in four of their last six matches.

Stats That Matter

– Collingwood have won 10 of the last 14 against West Coast including a 19-point win here the last time they met.
– West Coast have covered 6 of the 9 meetings since 2012.
– The under has hit in 7 of the 9 meetings since 2012.
– The Magpies are 5-11 ATS at Etihad since 2012 with an 11-5 under record.
– The under has hit in 8 of the last 11 West Coast games at Etihad.
– Collingwood have covered 6 of their last 7 as an underdog in Melbourne.
– The Magpies are 10-15 ATS as a favourite of fewer than three goals.
– West Coast are 13-22 ATS as an interstate favourite since 2012.
– The under is 14-6 when West Coast are interstate favourites of fewer than three goals.

Betting Data
2017 Line: Collingwood 8-8, West Coast 7-9
2017 Over-Under: Collingwood 9-7, West Coast 7-9

What To Expect
The under is a bet again in this clash. There are some good angles at play here for the under and almost no good angles for either side. The under hits at 70% when West Coast are a small interstate favourite and has hit in 8 of their last 11 at Etihad while Collingwood are 11-5 under at Etihad. These two also have a history of low-scoring matches.

How It’s Shaping Up
West Coast by 6

Recommended Bet
Under 184.5 points ($1.88)

Player Markets
Andrew Gaff has been in great nick of late fantasy-wise and has averaged 108 across the entire season. Hit 110-plus in two of his last three. Had 35 touches and five marks last time he played the Pies.

Recommended Bet
Andrew Gaff 110+ Fantasy Points ($1.90)