Adelaide v Geelong
Friday 7:50pm at Adelaide Oval
A blockbuster kicks off Round 18 with top-placed Adelaide hosting second-placed Geelong in a battle that will have a major bearing on home-field advantage throughout the finals.
Adelaide have won six of their last eight and have jumped back to the top of the ladder with a 12-4 record. The Crows have won three on end with their last two being wins of 46 and 59 against the Bulldogs and Demons. The Crows have conceded 70 or fewer in five of their last eight. The Crows have the top attack and third best defence.
Geelong sit second on the ladder, just a half-win behind Adelaide. The Cats rank third in attack and sixth in defence. Geelong have lost just one of their last eight though three of their last four have been decided by three points or fewer. The Cats have not conceded more than 85 points in any of their last eight matches.
Stats That Matter
– Geelong have won 13 of their last 16 against Adelaide including the last five.
– Geelong have covered the last five against the Crows.
– Adelaide are 29-16 ATS at the Adelaide Oval.
– Geelong are 3-1 ATS with a 4-0 under record at the Adelaide Oval.
– The Crows are 4-2 ATS with a 4-2 under record as a favourite of fewer than 24 at the Adelaide Oval since 2012.
– Adelaide are 9-3 ATS with an 8-4 over record as a favourite at Adelaide Oval after scoring 110 or more.
– The Cats have covered 8 of their last 12 interstate games, including four straight as an interstate outsider.
– Geelong have covered six straight and eight of their last 10 as an underdog.
– Outsiders who scored 90 or fewer and won the week prior cover at just 45%.
2017 Line: Adelaide 11-5, Geelong 8-8
2017 Over-Under: Adelaide 7-9, Geelong 8-8
What To Expect
Adelaide are such a reliable bet at home that they have to be bet here. They cover 75% of games at home after scoring 110 and they are huge when a favourite of less than four goals. The Cats are a good interstate side but there is some chance that they are overrated with four wins and a draw in close games.
How It’s Shaping Up
Adelaide by 25
Adelaide -15.5 ($1.91)
Eddie Betts has kicked three goals in a game seven times this season and has hit at least two in three straight.
Eddie Betts 3+ Goals ($1.75)
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