NRL Preview: Dragons v Sea Eagles

NRL Preview
St George Illawarra Dragons v Manly Sea Eagles
Sunday, July 23, 2pm (AEST) at WIN Stadium, Wollongong

The Dragons should have arguably won in Canberra last week and will be looking to make amends when they host the Sea Eagles in Wollongong on Sunday. Euan Aitken and Tyson Frizell are massive ins for the Red V, while the Sea Eagles have been dealt a blow, with hooker Api Koroisau ruled out with a calf injury. The Dragons are currently hanging on to 8th spot, with the Panthers hot on their heels outside the eight. Meanwhile, the Sea Eagles are holding 3rd spot, with the Broncos, Sharks and Cowboys all ready to pounce if the Sea Eagles slip up.

History
The Sea Eagles have won four of the last six against the Dragons though Paul McGregor’s men pounded Manly 35-10 at Brookvale earlier in the season. Both Euan Aitken and Gareth Widdop crossed for doubles in the 25-point win. The Dragons have won the last four in Wollongong against the Sea Eagles.

Form
St George Illawarra are down to eighth on the ladder following just three wins in their last 10 games with two of those wins coming against the bottom two teams in the premiership. The Saints have been kept to 16 or fewer in five of their last six games. The Dragons have conceded an average of 22.5 points per game in their last four. Manly have been the form team of the premiership with six wins in their last seven to see them jump to third on the ladder with an 11-6 record. The Eagles have conceded more than 20 in just two of their last 10.

Key Matchup
Paul Vaughan v Martin Taupau: Vaughan was the form forward of the competition before injury stopped his run. He was solid in his comeback against the Raiders last week and will be better for the run. Expect fireworks when Kapow Taupau runs his way! Taupau is having a career-best season and has been worth every cent that the Sea Eagles spent to get the Kiwi international over from the Tigers. The Dragons will need to attempt to stop his offload and slow down his play-the-balls. If they can stop Manly’s second phase, the Dragons defence will have a much easier afternoon.

Stats That Matter
– St George Illawarra are 9-8 ATS with a 10-7 under record while Manly are 9-8 ATS with a 9-8 under number.

– The Sea Eagles have won four of the last six against the Dragons though St George Illawarra pounded Manly 35-10 at Brookvale earlier in the season.

– The Dragons have won the last four in Wollongong against the Sea Eagles.

– The Dragons have covered 9 of their last 15 as an underdog of less than a try.

– The under is 23-8 when the Dragons are outsiders and they scored 14 the week prior.

– Manly have covered 10 of their last 15 away from Brookvale but are just 7-14 ATS as a road favourite.

– Road favourites who score 28 or more the week prior cover at just 43%.

Final Thoughts
The Wolf is keen on the Dragons as outsiders here in both head-to-head and line betting. They smashed the Sea Eagles earlier in the season and the loss of Koroisau is a massive blow to their chances here. Take the Dragons with the start and to win by 1-12 points.

How It’s Shaping Up
St George Illawarra by 2

Best Bet
St George Illawarra +2.5 ($1.91)

Other Recommended Bets
St George Illawarra 1-12 ($3.40)