NRL Preview: Broncos v Bulldogs

NRL Preview
Brisbane Broncos v Canterbury Bulldogs
Thursday, July 20, 7:50pm (AEST) at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

The Broncos did it the hard way in their Round 19 victory over the Knights, but any win is worth its weight in gold during the Origin period for the Brisbane club. They will welcome back Matt Gillett and Josh McGuire, who were both rested after Origin 3 due to the short turnaround after the Knight clash. The Bulldogs were extremely lucky to win in their last outing against the Knights and face a stern test when they travel to Brisbane. They will get their Origin stars back (Brett Morris, Josh Jackson and David Klemmer) though James Graham misses another week.

History
The Broncos have won five of the last eight matches against the Bulldogs though the Bulldogs have won three of the last four including a 10-7 victory at ANZ Stadium in Round 5 earlier this year. The Broncos have won four of the last five matches played at Suncorp.

Form
Brisbane are fourth on the ladder with an 11-6 record. They surprisingly went 3-3 over the Origin period, winning three of their last four games. The Broncos have conceded at least 18 points in six straight. Canterbury are down to 13th on the ladder with a 7-10 record. The Bulldogs have won just two of their last eight and fell in against Newcastle at Belmore before their last bye. Canterbury have averaged a putrid 11.67 points per game over the Origin period despite having no playmakers and just one back on Origin duty.

Key Matchup
Anthony Milford v Josh Reynolds: Milford made an early return for the Broncos in their win over the Knights and it couldn’t have come at a better time as the Broncos make their run to the finals. Milford scored a try in his return and was a constant threat every time he ran the ball. Reynolds was given a fitting farewell by the Bulldogs fans in their win over the Knights at Belmore, but his own for form has been patchy at best. He missed 6 tackles against the Knights and has struggled to generate anything in attack for his side. Points have been the issue for the Bulldogs and it will continue to be a problem unless the trio of Reynolds, Frawley and Mbye can find some sort of rhythm.

Stats That Matter
– Brisbane are 9-8 ATS with a 12-5 over record while Canterbury are 9-8 ATS with a 14-3 under record.

– Canterbury have won three of the last four against Brisbane though the Broncos have won four of the last five matches played at Suncorp.

– Six of the last eight matches have failed to break 32 points.

– Brisbane are 31-18 ATS at Suncorp since 2014 including an 18-10 ATS record when favoured by more than a converted try at the ground.

– The Bulldogs are 30-14 under away from ANZ since 2014.

– Canterbury have covered just 4 of their last 18 games away from ANZ.

–  The Bulldogs have failed to cover their last four off a bye.

Final Thoughts
The Wolf can see the Broncos going on a run to cement their Top 4 spot now that the Origin period is over. They’ll welcome back Origin stars Matt Gillett and Josh McGuire and have a clear advantage in the halves against a Bulldogs side, averaging just 11.67 points per game over the Origin period. The Broncos to cover.

How It’s Shaping Up
Brisbane by 14

Best Bet
Brisbane -8.5 ($1.91)

Other Recommended Bets
Under 39.5 ($1.88)