What's the stage like?
A short time trial at 22.5km which starts and finishes at the Orange Velodrome and tours rounds Marseille's Old Port. Short, because usually the final time trial is upwards of 50km, but, in recent years, organisers have clearly sought to diminish the amount of time that can be gained and lost in a discipline that does not typically favour the out-and-out climbers. It is unlikely that the time gaps will be huge, then, although we said that before Stage One, and then the rains came.
The highlight of the course is the steep climb up the Notre-Dame de la Garde, which has an average gradient of 9.5%. There is variety throughout, too: a faster, easier section in the first half followed by a more technical second half. This time trial will throw up some drama.
Who are the favourites?
Chris Froome (2.50), sixth in the opening time trial, but more suited by this effort, can go close. Although he seems to be less powerful than when winning bronze at the 2012 Olympics, he's still a supreme rider against the clock, and he will be contesting stage honours on the Tour's penultimate day. The issue with backing him is the same as in recent days: he is likely to ride partially conservatively, especially on the more technical latter stages of this course, so I expect a prominent showing, but perhaps not a stage win.
Ski-jumper-turned-cyclist Primoz Roglič (3.20), who has shown his time-trialing prowess over flat, prologue stages, such as when winning stage one of Ster ZLM, as well as hillier, longer efforts, such as stage five of the Tour of Romandie, should be hard to beat here. The course is made for him, and he'll relish the chance for a second stage win.
Who are the most likely outsiders?
Stefan Kung (11.00), second in the opening time trial, can be expected to go well. He has been consistently strong at similar efforts in recent seasons, including parcours involving short climbs. BMC have had a quieter than usual Tour and will be hoping Kung can bring them some much needed glory.
It's difficult to preview a time trial without mentioning Tony Martin (9.00), but he's been quiet in the Tour and there are concerns around his form.
Vasil Kiryienka (34.00) is of interest after his prominent showing in Dusseldorf, and he can handle some climbing on the way to posting fast times, as he demonstrated on Stage 10 in the Giro D'Italia. He has the profile of someone who will finish in the top ten, though, and not someone who will win the stage.
Jonathan Castroviejo (26.00) might be the best of the outsiders, especially given his climbing prowess.
Team Sky filled four of the top ten spots in Dusseldorf and it would be unwise to ignore the chances of Michal Kwiatkowski (26.00) and even Mikel Landa (100.00). The latter is not a renowned time trialist, hence his long odds, but finished second in the Spanish Nationals this year and will be keen to establish his team leadership credentials with a fast effort here, as well as potentially making the podium.
What effect will the stage have on the overall markets?
The General Classification is unlikely to be significantly changed at day's end. Rigoberto Uran is solid against the clock. He's finished ahead of Chris Froome in time trials numerous times in the past, although recent from suggests he will lose some time to the Yellow Jersey here, albeit nothing significant. The bigger GC-story may centre around the darling of France, Romain Bardet. He's a dismal time trialist and Mikel Landa can eject him from the podium.
In the Young Rider competition, pre-Tour pick Simon Yates should easily hold off Louis Meintjes.
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Back Primoz Roglič at 3.20
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