AFL Preview: Dockers v Hawks

Fremantle v Hawthorn
Saturday 7:40pm at Domain Stadium

The season is all but over for whoever loses this clash between Fremantle and Hawthorn.

Form
Fremantle sit 12th on the ladder with a 7-9 record. They rank 17th in scoring and 14th in defence so their ladder position seems overstated. The Dockers have won just 1 of their last 7, a four-point win over North Melbourne two weeks back. The Dockers have been kept to 86 or fewer in their last nine matches.

Hawthorn are 13th on the ladder with a 6-9-1 record. The Hawks rank 14th in scoring and 15th in defence. Hawthorn’s only loss in their last four matches was a close defeat last Saturday against Geelong. The Hawks have not conceded more than 100 points since Round 6 after doing so five of their first six games.

Stats That Matter

– The Hawks have won 9 of their last 10 against the Dockers.
– Hawthorn have covered 6 of the last 8 against the Dockers.
– Fremantle are 45-28 under at Subiaco.
– Freo are 9-14 ATS as an underdog at Subiaco.
– Freo are 4-9 ATS at home after scoring 60 points or fewer.
– The Hawks have gone under in nine straight interstate games.
– Hawthorn have covered just 1 of their last 8 as an interstate favourite.
– The Hawks have gone under in 8 of their last 11 night games.
– Fremantle are 24-8 under at night since 2012.

Betting Data
2017 Line: Fremantle 8-8, Hawthorn 7-9
2017 Over-Under: Fremantle 8-8, Hawthorn 4-12

What To Expect
The under looks a blue-chip special in this one. There are huge under angles every which way you look. The Hawks are a huge under team interstate. Freo are a monster under team at night and at Subiaco. Confidence is through the roof on this bet.

How It’s Shaping Up
Hawthorn by 4

Recommended Bet
Under 166.5 points ($1.88)

Player Markets
Probably only betting against an injury here in taking Tom Mitchell 35-plus disposals. Has hit at least 35 in all bar four games this year.

Recommended Bet
Tom Mitchell 35+ Disposals ($1.65)