NRL Preview: Roosters v Knights

NRL Preview
Sydney Roosters v Newcastle Knights
Friday, July 21, 6pm (AEST) at Allianz Stadium, Sydney

The Roosters find themselves sitting in outright second behind the Melbourne Storm and will be looking to making a run at the minor premiership now that the Origin period is over. The loss of Jake Friend and Michael Gordon to injury is a bitter blow, but they have a few handy replacements in Connor Watson and Mitchell Cornish. The Knights haven’t been able to take a trick over the past fortnight, and should have won against the Bulldogs in Round 18, and had plenty of chances against the Broncos last week. New Knights recruit Shaun Kenny-Dowall will take on his former club for the first time. If the Roosters are switched on, this could get very ugly!

History
The Roosters have won seven of the last eight against the Knights including the last three by margins of 16 or greater and won in Newcastle earlier this year by 24-6. The Roosters have won the last four at Allianz against the Knights by an average margin of 24.75 points per game.

Form
The Sydney Roosters are up to second on the ladder with a 12-5 record. The Roosters have won four of their last five and upset Souths without their Origin players before a bye. Their one loss in that run though was a horrific defeat to Cronulla. The Roosters have won their last four at Allianz. Newcastle are last on the ladder and have won just three games since the start of the 2016 season. The Knights have been close against Canterbury and Brisbane but couldn’t secure the two points. Newcastle have conceded at least 30 in five of their last seven. .

Key Matchup
Latrell Mitchell v Dane Gagai: Mitchell has looked a much improved player since his stint in the NSW Cup and is definitely a star in the making. Many people have made comparisons to Greg Inglis, but The Wolf can also see plenty of similarities with the man he’ll come up against on Friday night. Gagai has been the Knights’ best player this season and was also named the best player in the recent Origin series. He scored a try and made two line-breaks in last week’s loss to the Broncos. He’s a tackle-breaking machine and will be looking to get under the skin of Mitchell. The Bunnies have a good one on their books next season.

Stats That Matter
– Sydney Roosters are 8-9 ATS with a 9-8 under record while Newcastle are also 8-9 ATS with a 9-8 under number.

– The Roosters have won seven of the last eight against the Knights including the last three by margins of 16 or greater.

– The Roosters have won the last four at Allianz against the Knights by an average margin of 24.75 points per game.

– In the post-Origin period since 2008, home favourites of 16 or more cover at 60%.

– The Roosters are 6-2 under at home when favoured by more than two converted tries.

– The Knights have covered just 3 of their last 9 road games when getting a start of 16 or more.

– The Knights are 6-14 ATS since 2014 on the road at night.

Final Thoughts
The Roosters are missing key troops in Jake Friend, Michael Gordon and Boyd Cordner, but how do you trust the Knights despite the big start? They should have covered against the Broncos last week and threw the game away the week before against the Bulldogs. The Roosters have the clear edge in the halves and their weakened side across the board is still better than the Knights. Chooks to cover.

How It’s Shaping Up
Sydney by 24

Best Bet
Sydney -15.5 ($1.91)

Other Recommended Bets
Sydney by 21-30 ($4.50)