What's the stage like?

Like Stage 17, another one for the climbers, with the race going over 2,000m twice more, making it four times in two days. The difference here is that the stage finishes on the difficult summit of Izoard, over 14km of climbing at an average gradient of 7.3%, with some sections ramping up over 10%, including a short section that hits 14% towards the top. Riders who have already been softened up by the shorter, but steeper, Category One Col de Vars in the middle of the stage, will find the finishing climb tough, and large time gaps are likely.

Who are the favourites?

Chris Froome (4.00), Rigoberto Uran (6.00) and Romain Bardet (6.00).

The top three riders for Yellow Jersey honours are starting to look significantly stronger than their rivals, with Fabio Aru beginning to crack and the others looking out-of-depth on these big Alpine climbs. On Stage 17, Froome largely rode defensively on the ascents, but the fact that he could so comfortably chase down the accelerations of the others suggests that he is the strongest of the trio.

Who are the most likely outsiders?

Having put up Primoz Roglic at the start of the Tour, and tipping him for stage honours along the way, it was a little frustrating to see him get his Stage 17 win on the day he carried none of my money. It's a longshot, because Team Sky will keep the tempo high at the front of the peloton, making it difficult for any breakaway, and there is no guarantee that Roglic will be fully recovered from the efforts of his previous day, but at (40.00) he may be a good bet to repeat the effort.

It's hard to make a case for anyone else, though. This is a day for the General Classification to get itself decided and lesser riders likely won't get a look in.

What effect will the stage have on the overall markets?

Organisers thought that offering double points at the summit of Izoard would add spice to the King of the Mountains competition, but that hasn't come to pass: Warren Barguil has that competition sewn up. As has Michael Matthews in the Points Classification, where the abandonment of Marcel Kittel has virtually guaranteed that the Sunweb sprinter will wear Green in Paris.

As for the overall race, it would be wrong to say that this stage is the last chance for anyone to have any impact - crosswinds are a possibility on upcoming stages and there's the time trial in Marseille on the penultimate day - but it's true that this looks crucial. If Froome remains in Yellow at days' end, he'll be a 1.10 shot who only has to stay upright to win this Tour.

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