Birmingham v Wolves: Back table-topping Old Gold to silence St Andrew's

Birmingham v Wolves
Monday December 4, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports

Birmingham's new approach

Birmingham battled their way to a pleasing point at Sheffield United last time out. Jeremie Boga's first-half stunner gave the Blues a shock lead but the Blues held firm as the Blades laid a second-half siege, which eventually resulted in an equaliser at Bramall Lane.

Steve Cotterill was happy with how his team performed, especially so considering Birmingham switched to a three-at-the-back approach after only one training session to embed the system. Marc Roberts, Harlee Dean and the recalled Michael Morrison all impressed at the heart of the Blues backline.

With Maikel Kieftenbeld and Cheikh Ndoye scrapping in central midfield, City looked solid in the centre of the park and with David Davis, Stephen Gleeson, Jason Lowe, Craig Gardner and Carl Jenkinson all on the comeback trail, Cotterill has plenty of options once more should he wish to alter things on Monday.

Wolves in fine form

Wolves made it five straight wins as they blew struggling Bolton at Molineux last weekend. A double from Ivan Cavaleiro as well as goals from Willy Boly, Leo Bonatini and Jota saw the Old Gold cruise to a 5-1 success; Wanderers now have four-point buffer on second-placed Sheffield United.

With a nine-day break before Monday's match, boss Nuno Espirito Santo allowed his players a group trip to London immediately after their last outing for some downtime and the Portuguese coach believes the rest period will give his troops an opportunity to refresh and refocus ahead of a busy Christmas period.

Unfortunately for Wolves, record signing Ruben Neves is suspended for the trip to St Andrew's with Alfred N'Diaye and Jack Price the leading candidates to replace the instrumental midfield man in Wanderers' tried-and-trusted 3-4-3 formation.

Old Gold strong favourites

Wolves 1.69 have won three of their last four trips to St Andrew's and having scored more goals (9) in their last two Championship tussles than Birmingham (8) have managed all season, it's easy to see why the Old Gold are so heavily fancied to take top honours here.

The visitors have picked up maximum points in each of their last five - all five victories arriving by a margin of two goals or more - have claimed seven wins in their last 11 road trips whilst Nuno's charges have also claimed five of their most recent eight triumphs alongside a clean sheet; a repeat can be backed at 9/5.

Considering Birmingham 4.30 have scored just 36 goals in their past 52 league outings and managed only two goals in their previous seven encounters. What's more, the Blues are returning just a 37% Expected Goals from open play ratio compared to a table-topping figure of 71% from Wolves.

Backing Wolves to silence their hosts en-route to another success appeals however it's worth noting that Birmingham have avoided defeat in all five fixtures against top-six teams this term, including taking seven points from a possible nine here against clubs currently occupying the play-off positions.

Shot-shy Blues may contribute to low-scoring tie

Four of Birmingham's past six St Andrew's meetings with top-four opposition since the start of last season have featured fewer than two goals and with the Blues recording four clean sheets in their last five against top-six sides, a similarly defensive display is expected in a low-scoring tussle.

Five of Wolves' nine away days under Nuno have crept below the Under 2.5 Goals barrier whilst collectively these two average 2.05 total Expected Goals from open play this season, suggesting the 1.75 for a repeat is probably fair.

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