La Liga Betting: Sevilla will test patched-up Real Madrid defence

Alavés v Las Palmas
Friday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Red Button and Betfair Live Video

We're not yet halfway through the season, but this game at the Mendizorrotza already has the air of a relegation six-pointer. Both Alavés and Las Palmas have made shaky starts to the campaign, shipping goals aplenty and offering very little in attack. Both managed overdue victories last weekend, but remain in the dropzone at the start of Jornada 15.

Las Palmas are one point better off, but there's reason to believe they will struggle in the Basque country. They're notoriously poor travellers, for a start (one win in their last 25 away games in La Liga), but more crucially they are without a number of players: Pedro Bigas, Momo and Vitolo are all out injured, while both Tana and Alberto Aquilani have been rested.

There will be a spring in the step of the Alavés players after their remarkable comeback win over Girona. New coach Abelardo will still be feeling his way into his new job, but he should be hopeful of building momentum against under-strength opponents.

Recommended Bet
Back Alavés to win at 2.36

Real Madrid v Sevilla
Saturday, 15:15
Live on Betfair Live Video

They finished their Champions League group with a win over Borussia Dortmund in midweek, but the 0-0 draw against Athletic Club a week ago is a far better barometer for where Real Madrid are right now. The Bilbao outfit were there for the taking, missing three of their best players (Aymeric Laporte, Beñat, Iker Muniain) and on a run of one win in 10, yet Los Blancos were unable to find a goal, let alone three points, in a bad-tempered match.

That draw let Barcelona and Valencia off the hook, but allowed Atlético Madrid to tighten their grip on third. It also meant that Sevilla moved level on points with the champions ahead of their trip to the Bernabéu on Saturday night. It's not inconceivable that Madrid could end the weekend down in sixth, which is just about as bleak as things get at the top table of football in Spain.

If Zinedine Zidane needs some solace, he can look at the recent meetings between the sides in the capital: Los Merengues have beaten Sevilla on each of their last eight visits, averaging 3.5 goals per game. But this Madrid attack is nowhere near as potent as past iterations, while the defence is likely to be exposed by a number of key absences. With Sergio Ramos, Dani Carvajal and Casemiro suspended, plus Raphael Varane injured, Zidane is likely to name a back four of Achraf Hakimi, Nacho, Jesús Vallejo and Marcelo, with no natural holding player in front.

Sevilla will be licking their lips at the prospect. Eduardo Berizzo's have been in excellent goalscoring form, with Wissam Ben Yedder (five goals in his last five games) especially potent. There may be a little tiredness after a midweek schlep to Slovenia, but it would be a surprise if they did not score at least once - and no great upturn if they avoid defeat.

Recommended Bet
Back Sevilla +0.5 at [3.77]
Back Sevilla to score two or more at 15/8

Villarreal v Barcelona
Sunday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports Football and Betfair Live Video

Barcelona seem to be living a charmed life: even when they drop points, as they did to Celta Vigo last weekend, they seem to get away with it. In fact, with Valencia losing to Getafe, the Blaugrana even managed to extend their lead at the summit of La Liga to five points. As the old aphorism goes: if you can't be good, be lucky.

Barça are very often good as well, of course, but have been pottering along in second gear for a few weeks now. Draws against Juventus and Valencia were good results, and they saw off Sporting with ease in midweek, but the lingering question is whether they can raise their level for the stiffer challenges that lie ahead. The Christmas Clásico does not look as scary as it once might have, but the new-year Champions League resumption will be a real litmus test for this side.

Their opponents on Sunday, Villarreal, have had a tricky couple of weeks, letting leads slip against Sevilla (2-3) and Leganés (1-3). They haven't won in 16 Liga games against Barça, either, which does not bode well for their hopes of causing an upset here.

Yet they could make more of a game of it than odds of 1.58 on the away win might have you believe. Both teams have scored in eight of the last 10 meetings, and the Yellow Submarine have been regular scorers at home this season, with 14 goals in six games. Javi Calleja rotated heavily for the visit of Maccabi Tel Aviv on Thursday night, so freshness won't be an issue, and it's not hard to foresee Cédric Bakambu relishing a battle with Thomas Vermaelen.

Recommended Bet
Back Barcelona to win and both teams to score at 17/10