Serie A Betting: A weekend for laying the short-priced favourites

Juventus v Inter
Saturday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 3 and Betfair Live Video

The Serie A race is well and truly on, and Inter Milan have taken control of it for the moment, but they put the League's final unbeaten record on the line at Juventus on Saturday, knowing that if they can storm Turin and beat the defending champions, they'll have made a huge statement.

The current Serie A narrative is that Inter are fortunate to be where they are and are an accident waiting to happen, and yet they've been growing in confidence and quality by the game, and there's every chance that they can cause Juve real problems.

I was kicking myself last week, as you'll have probably guessed from what I wrote that I fancied Juve in Naples, yet bottled that call and settled for tipping the draw, something that I very rarely do. The champions were outstanding though, and pushed me more and more towards the theory that Napoli just don't have a strong enough squad to maintain their title push.

This will be billed as a face-off between the League's best two strikers, Gonzalo Higuain and Mauro Icardi (pictured), although given how well marshalled both will be, it might end up being won and lost by others.

Ivan Perisic is one of those players, and he's in outstanding form at the moment, while Paulo Dybala might hold the key for Juve. This stadium holds no fears at all for Inter, who are one of only four Serie A teams to have won at the Juventus Stadium. Given that their defensive record matches that of their opponents, and that they carry a significant attacking threat, they'll be full of confidence.

Inter have already gone to Roma and won, drawn at Napoli, and responded to every challenge that has been thrown at them this season. If they win at Juve on Saturday, the doubters will have to keep quiet and they'll be very real Serie A challengers.

Given how level these teams are, and given Inter's current confidence, I think that Juve are too short here. I'm happy to lay them at 1.76, while looking longingly at the 5.50that's available about an Inter win.

Recommended Bet
Lay Juventus to beat Inter @ 1.76

Napoli v Fiorentina
Sunday, 14:00
Live on BT Sport 1 and Betfair Live Video

Cracks are starting to show in Naples: last weekend's defeat against Juve was followed by a Champions League exit that was more worrying because it wasn't solely caused by Manchester City's defeat at Shakhtar, but by Napoli's own loss at a poor Feyenoord side.

Maurizio Sarri's team look dog-tired to me, and these are dangerous weeks to come: games will arrive thick and fast, and their threadbare squad will be tested even more than it has been. Fiorentina come to the San Paolo after going unbeaten in three, and suggesting that they could go on to a strong second half of the season under Stefano Pioli.

It was always going to take a while for Pioli to make an impact on a demotivated and much changed squad, but a draw at Lazio was a good result, and while La Viola are functional rather than sparkling, they do work hard, and are exactly the kind of team that will make life difficult for Napoli.

The Partenopei have now failed to score in three of their last seven League games, have gone out of the Champions League, and play in front of a notoriously fickle crowd. If Fiorentina can keep this tight, and discourage the home team, then silence will start to settle on the San Paolo, and that could turn Napoli's mini crisis into a major one.

I don't think that Fiorentina will necessarily go and win in Naples, but when the zip and zest isn't there in Maurizio Sarri's side, they do become predictable, and Pioli is clever enough to work out how to stop them, just as he managed to stifle Lazio's free scoring side. He'll be confident that his team can get something out of this, and Napoli are far too short in my book. I'll lay them at 1.40.

Recommended Bet
Lay Napoli to beat Fiorentina @ 1.40

Lazio v Torino
Monday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 1 and Betfair Live Video

At the start of the season, this would have looked like an Over 3.5 Goals certainty. Both teams in free scoring form, both vulnerable and hard to stop, both combining for a high scoring thriller.

Things have changed for both Lazio and Torino, though, The Granata have scored 12 goals fewer than at this point last season, and Lazio have dried up a little too. Ciro Immobile hasn't scored in his last two, and with Torino drawing their last four, and showing that they are capable of keeping things tight away from home against the big boys (Juve aside), under 2.5 goals at a healthy price of 2.70 is a tempting bet here.

Torino's last two away games, against Milan and Inter, finished 0-0 and 1-1 respectively, and I expect something similar here. They are a different prospect away from home, and Sinisa Mihajlovic will be delighted if he can stop Lazio doing their thing and escape with another draw.

And there are signs that teams are starting to work out how to play against Lazio. Roma, Fiorentina and Sampdoria all stopped them from playing, and if you can cut Immobile out, then you have a real chance against them. I know that there are goalscoring threats from elsewhere, but I think that Torino will be good enough to come away with at least a point.

We could back the "unders", but I prefer to lay Lazio, who are too short here at 1.52. I don't think that the wheels have come off, simply that Torino will be far tougher to beat than that price suggests.

Recommended Bet
Lay Lazio to beat Torino @ 1.52