Newcastle United v Leicester City
Saturday December 09, 17:30
Live on BT Sport 1

Benitez suffering from reversion to the mean

As a newly-promoted side, it was always likely to be difficult for Newcastle United to make a big splash in the Premier League, especially given the relatively modest investment made in the squad. Manager Rafa Benitez has publicly bemoaned the fact that fellow newbies Brighton and Huddersfield Town were able to attract players that he wanted to sign.
On that basis, it was impressive that the Magpies only lost three of their first nine games in the top flight. However, reality has bitten in recent weeks, and Benitez' side have claimed just a point from their last six matches.
Defensive errors are being made, with 12 goals leaked in the last four outings. At the other end, Newcastle have scored just four times in their last six games, and have drawn a blank in their last three home matches. Opta tell us it's their worst goalscoring run at home in the Premier League since January 2014.
If you'd have offered Magpies fans a five-point cushion in the relegation battle after 15 games at the start of the season, I'm sure most would have accepted, but as the club prepares to celebrate its 125th anniversary on Saturday, there is an undoubted air of trepidation.

Puel boost lasting longer than many expected

The appointment of Claude Puel as Leicester City manager underwhelmed some and bewildered others, but the veteran French coach is showing that he might know a thing or two about football after all. Having led Southampton to eighth spot in the Premier League and a Wembley final last term, he was dismissed, largely it appears because of a breakdown in his relationship with his players.
Just as Claudio Ranieri did (although perhaps a touch more spectacularly), Puel is proving his doubters wrong in the Leicester hotseat. Since he took charge, the Foxes have lost just one of their six league games, and the 11 points they have collected have taken them a healthy ten points clear of the bottom three.
Puel is looking to win three league games in a row for the first time since March 2016, when he was in charge of Nice. He'll hope that Jamie Vardy can aid him in that quest - the speedy striker needs one more Premier League goal to reach the 50 mark. He's not on great form though, having netted in just two of his last 12 appearances.

Foxes worth backing with a touch of caution

Leicester haven't lost any of their last five away games in the league, and they are in better form than Saturday's opponents. Although they have only won once on the road in the league, they have put in some good displays.
Newcastle have lost their last two home games without scoring, and given the errors they are repeatedly making in matches, it's difficult to back them with any confidence here. I'll support the visitors using the Draw No Bet market.

Goal tally may depend on Puel's approach

Puel is a cautious coach by nature, and in his short spell in charge of the Foxes he has made them well organised and tough to beat. Four of his six matches have featured fewer than three goals.
Given that Newcastle are struggling in front of goal, it's no surprise therefore that Under 2.5 Goals is the favourite here at 1.82. However, Newcastle are leaking goals, and their last four league games have featured three goals or more. If you think Puel may be a bit bolder and look to exploit those weaknesses, you may wish to back overs at 2.00.

In-form Magpies striker is worth a look

Although I believe Leicester will come out on top here, I must draw your attention to the fact that Dwight Gayle is priced at 3.20 to score in 90 minutes. He scored at Chelsea and Manchester United in the last few weeks, and was stellar in the Championship last term.
Recommended Bet
Back Leicester City Draw No Bet at 2.08

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