Swansea v West Brom 
Saturday December 9 15:00

The time for Swans to be cautious has passed

The Swans' nightmare season continued with a 2-1 defeat at Stoke and they're bottom of the table with just nine points and understandably, the 1.36 favourites for the drop. In fact, no other side is odds-on to go down despite West Ham and Huddersfield being just one point above them, which tells you all you need to know about how Betfair customers rate Paul Clement's side. Or don't rate them, to be more precise.
At least Clement did one thing right in that match. He fielded Jordan Ayew, Tammy Abraham and Wilfried Bony all in attack for the first time this campaign. Before that, it was usually just one of those upfront which partly explains why no side in this division has had less shots on target than them all season (27). It seems like the penny has finally dropped. Midfielders like Tom Carroll, Leroy Fer, Ki Sung-Yeung and Sam Clucas aren't going to score many goals over the course of the season so unless he's playing every match to draw 0-0, he simply has to field at least two of those three forwards in every match from hereon.

Baggies poorly placed but relegation no huge concern

West Brom are 17th with 13 points. They're rated as 3.50 chances to go down. One of the differences between them and Swansea is quite simply the quality and depth of the squad. Yes, there are no real superstars there but you get the feeling the manager has to make a few tough decisions every week about who to leave out while Clement has to mull over who to put in.
New manager Alan Pardew has vowed to play more expansive football than predecessor Tony Pulis but he may have to wait a while before he can put his plan into action. Nacer Chadli and James Morrison, two of his most creative players, are both out injured. So are Northern Irish pair Chris Brunt and Craig Dawson.

Little appeal on the match odds market

It's a weekly struggle to decide what's more important: the head-to-head record between two sides over the years or the 'here and now' in terms of current form, the form of individual players and how well-drilled, disciplined and motivated the team is.
If it's the latter I was going to give the most weight to, then Swansea would be a decent bet at 2.72 given they've beaten the Baggies at home in five of their last six attempts. But I simply can't bring myself to back a side who offers such a lack of a goal threat and who are in such poor current form. West Brom at 3.10 are one to avoid as well given that only Everton have won as few away matches as them (just one) since the start of last season in the Premier League. Go with the draw at 3.10 as the lesser of three evils if you must, but we can find better bets.

Not a fun bet but the right bet

It's not much fun backing under 1.5 goals and hoping this is a boring battle of attritionwhere any sort of a chance is at a premium. But then again, we're here to bet on matches and try to make money from it, not enjoy them.
I can't get away from Swansea's lack of an attacking threat and West Brom aren't much better. With 12 goals scored, only Swansea, Crystal Palace and Huddersfield have scored less. Their trio of attackers - Salomon Rondon, Hal Robson-Kanu and Jay Rodriguez, each have two goals. That's as many as anyone in the squad has. Back under 1.5 goals at 2.7.

Ref Watch

Mike Dean takes charge. And he's not one of my favourite referees, to be honest. He often referees the game like a schoolmaster running out of patience with his misbehaving students rather than as an official dealing with grown men doing their jobs. He averages around 3.5 yellows a game.
Things could get a little messy here between two sides desperate for points knowing this is a big game. Leroy Fer (3/1) and Allan Nyom (23/10) are officially the most booked players on the pitch, each with four so far. Either of those or Jonny Evans (7/4) who has three bookings or Ahmed Hegazi (13/5) might be worth a punt to be booked.
Recommended Bet
1pt Back Under 1.5 goals @ 2.70 

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