Bundesliga Betting: Koln to finally pick up first league win

Koln v Freiburg
Sunday December 10, 12:30
Live on BT Sport Extra and Betfair Live Video

Peter Stoger doffed his cap to the travelling Koln fans in Gelsenkirchen, and everyone knew his four-and-a-half-year love affair with the Rhineland club was coming to a swift conclusion. Despite a battling 2-2 draw at Schalke, the decision had already been made. The Austrian coach had asked for assurances about his future that weren't forthcoming, and the two parties decided to go their separate ways.

Stoger's departure follows his only period of failure with the Billy Goats. He led them back into the Bundesliga, delivered three hugely impressive top-flight seasons (including last term's barely believable fifth-place finish), but this campaign has been disastrous. Koln have collected three points from 14 games, and their Europa League adventure came to a close on Thursday as they lost a game at Crvena Zvezda that they needed to win.

The men in charge at the moment are Under-19 boss Stefan Ruthenbeck and his assistant Kevin McKenna. I know they will work incredibly hard to turn things around, and although I believe Stoger was badly let down by his players and a transfer policy that failed to reinforce the squad, a change may do some short-term good.

A home game against Freiburg comes at a good time, because it's a game the Billy Goats can certainly win. Freiburg are in the relegation playoff spot, and when you take them out of the supportive surroundings of the Schwarzwald Stadion, they fall apart.

Freiburg have collected one point from their away games this term, and if you stretch back further, they have lost eight of their last nine away matches. They have conceded 30 goals in those nine outings, and although they have some talented players, it's hard not to conclude that in terms of depth they have the weakest squad in the division. Their seventh-placed finish last term was an even bigger miracle than Koln's effort, but the loss of attacking stars Vincenzo Grifo and Maximilian Philipp hasn't really been mitigated.

Koln are rock bottom, but they played well at Schalke, and they beat Arsenal in their most recent home match. It should be a great atmosphere at the RheinEnergieStadion, and I'll back the hosts to pick up a rare win.

Recommended Bet
Back Koln to win at 2.16

RB Leipzig v Mainz
Saturday December 09, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

RB Leipzig saw their Champions League dream dissolve on Wednesday, as Porto's win over Monaco rendered their efforts against Besiktas irrelevant, and then they lost anyway. However, they drop into the Europa League, and that is still impressive given their lack of experience in continental competition.

It's been a tough week, which kicked off with a 4-0 hammering at Hoffenheim, RBL's worst ever defeat in the Bundesliga. They had plenty of the ball, but struggled to create chances, and Hoffe were ruthless. Serge Gnabry's wonder goal from just inside the Leipzig half epitomised how deadly the hosts were in front of goal.

Leipzig should find this weekend a bit more straightforward. I suggested at the start of the season that Mainz may find themselves in the relegation mix, and although they've had some good performances under new coach Sandro Schwarz, they are far too reliant on their home form. They were beaten at the Opel Arena by Augsburg last time out, and now they face a daunting trip to the Red Bull Arena, where they were blown away in a 3-1 loss last term.

Mainz have won just one of their last 20 away games in the league, and they have lost five of their last seven. I can't see them getting a result here.

Recommended Bet
Back RB Leipzig -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at 2.20

Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen
Saturday December 09, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

The misery continues for embattled Borussia Dortmund coach Peter Bosz. BVB have won just one of their last 12 matches, although at least they put up a fight in a 3-2 defeat at Real Madrid, thanks to two strikes either side of half time from Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.

The slump has become a crisis, but Bosz insists the corner will be turned soon. Admittedly there have been good spells in recent games, but catastrophic defending is costing Dortmund time and time again.

Relegation-threatened Werder arrive in the Ruhr having improved under caretaker coach Florian Kohfeldt. They look more of a threat in attack these days, with Max Kruse, Fin Bartels and Zlatko Junuzovic all starting to click again as a triumvirate.

However, Werder do still struggle to turn good performances into points on their travels. Since Kohfeldt replaced Alex Nouri, his team has lost at Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig. They haven't won an away game in the league since April, and I think they'll fall short here.

Do I think Werder's sparkling attack will score against a shaky Dortmund defence? Yes. Do I think they'll avoid defeat against a team that's had to face Leipzig, Bayern and Schalke in its last three home games, and is generally strong at Signal Iduna Park? No.

Recommended Bet
Back Borussia Dortmund/Both Teams To Score double at 2.30