The Big Match Tactical View: Man Utd v Man City

Man Utd v Man City
Sunday, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports 1

Match Odds: Man Utd 3.50, Man City 2.26, The Draw 3.60.

Jose v Pep

This is, quite simply, the biggest match of the Premier League so far: second versus first, Jose Mourinho versus Pep Guardiola. The gap between United and City is currently eight points. A United win and a five-point game means game on - a City victory, and an 11-point margin, and the title race might be over before Christmas.

Mourinho versus Guardiola usually means Mourinho trying to devise a strategy to frustrate Guardiola, and while this match is at Old Trafford, where United have some onus to attack, it's difficult to see anything different this time around.

Mourinho has been using a three-man defence recently, and may continue with that system here, albeit with Antonio Valencia and the in-form Ashley Young brought back into a back five, helping to defend against the dangerous runs of Leroy Sane and Raheem Sterling respectively.

United are likely to have a surplus in defence for long periods, effectively playing five-against-three, and should have Victor Lindelhof, Chris Smalling and Marcos Rojo up against Sergio Aguero. The Argentine hasn't scored from open play in his last five matches, and if United sit deep might find it difficult to get himself into goalscoring opportunities.

Midfield battle

The key for United, though, is in the centre of midfield. Kevin De Bruyne and David Silva are City's two most dangerous players - Mourinho doesn't believe the injury doubt about the latter and thinks both will start - and must be stopped.

Paul Pogba is suspended, but that might not be too problematic - because Mourinho will need two highly disciplined players in front of his back four. Nemanja Matic will be one, and he'll be tasked with stopping De Bruyne.

The other should be Ander Herrera, who has previously performed a fine man-marking job on Eden Hazard, and might be capable of doing something on the similarly gifted, if different, Silva. Stopping De Bruyne and Silva is no easy task, but Matic and Herrera is perhaps the Premier League midfield duo most likely to keep them quiet.

United counters

Further forward, Jesse Lingard is in tremendous form and should go up against Fernandinho, pressing him when required but also speeding past on the break. And it's United's counter-attacking speed that will be most dangerous here, especially against the rather shaky City centre-back pairing of Vincent Kompany and Nicolas Otamendi.

Kompany won't relish the prospect of playing against the speedy Anthony Martial - around2.80 for Kompany to be shown a card would be a good back - while Romelu Lukaku's link play has been excellent in recent weeks. There's goals in this game for United.

Will they sit back, or press high as they did against Arsenal? In all probability, a bit of both. Judging by the performance of Mourinho's Real against Guardiola's Barca, expect sporadic waves of pressing high in the opening stages, expect United to start aggressively before gradually dropping back. Possession sides often require a few minutes to assert their control upon the game, and Mourinho often tries to disturb that passing rhythm at an early stage.

City tactics

Guardiola's system and XI has been very consistent in recent weeks and he has few obvious decisions here. Silva's fitness is the main question mark, with Ilkay Gundogan the most likely replacement, but otherwise there should be few surprises.

Where will City try and expose United? Well, when facing a Chelsea side playing a 3-5-2 system, they tried to create overloads down the flanks. But rather than Kyle Walker and Fabian Delph pushing forward, De Bruyne drifted right into crossing positions, and Silva drifted wide to both flanks to create passing triangles. Chelsea simply didn't have enough numbers down the flanks, and City were capable of finding plenty of space.

This could be another match where City use this approach, and take advantage of De Bruyne's brilliant crossing ability. Young and Valencia will shut down, with United's three-man defence shuffling across the pitch laterally in turn, but City might be able to find gaps.

I think City look far too short here. Their recent performances haven't been impressive, and against a United side likely to concentrate on nullifying their strengths, I think they could drop points. I'll lay City at 2.26.

This is a crucial game for the Red Devils as defeat would almost certainly see their local rivals out of sight in the title race. United are in good form at the minute enjoying a four game winning streak in the league and a win today would reduce the margin at the top to just five points.

City come into the game after eventually ending their winning run after suffering defeat in the Ukraine. However, they rested most of their key players in that fixture and they will be back to full strength for this one (I am assuming David Silva makes it).

The market has City as 2.26 favourites giving them a 44.2% chance of extending their league winning run at Old Trafford. I can’t argue with that price, I think it is pretty much spot on. However, I had the draw slightly higher than the 3.60 available and that has made United a more attractive 3.50 to win the game than the price I had them at which was 3.25.

While I think both sides will be looking for the win, they will also know that defeat isn’t an option and for that reason I think keeping the draw onside isn’t a bad play. I will be backing Manchester United in the Draw No Bet market at 2.52.