MLS betting: Seattle Sounders to triumph in cup repeat

Toronto FC v Seattle Sounders
Saturday, 21:00
Live on Sky Sports Football

And so, here we are again: after an excellent regular season, followed by an underwhelming series of Play-Off games, we're back to where we were this time last year. Toronto FC will play the Seattle Sounders at BMO Field in Toronto for the MLS Cup.

In 2016, the Sounders pulled off a surprise win, albeit on penalties, and with TFC's regular season record confirming them as the best team in the history of MLS, the task looks harder than ever for Brian Schmetzer's Seattle, but I think it's one that they're equal to.

Toronto have been feeling the pressure this post season, and scraped past two inferior teams in the shape of the New York Red Bulls and the Columbus Crew, and yet things have been a breeze for Seattle. The Western Conference is definitely weaker than the East, but it's still been impressive to watch the Sounders beat up both Vancouver and Houston without conceding a goal.

With Jozy Altidore struggling with an ankle injury, Toronto's attacking burden will once again fall on Sebastian Giovinco, and he's looking tired after a long season, as are most of the Toronto team. Seattle are the ones who look fresh and to have timed their upturn in form perfectly.

The Sounders defence is the bedrock of their success. Chad Marshall and Roman Torres have been outstanding as a central defensive partnership, conceding 0.7 goals per game in the 1,790 minutes that they've partnered. They dealt with Giovinco last year, and I don't see any reason why they can't do so again.

Seattle also have the key forward player on the pitch, the arc of whose season fits into that sense of timing it right. Nicolas Lodeiro had a quiet regular season, but the Uruguayan has exploded in the Play Offs, and has looked the most threatening throughout. Seeing him at his best, while watching Diego Valeri run out of steam, must have saddened Portland Timbers fans, but Lodeiro is the one with a big role to play in the Cup.

The stats say that Lodeiro has completed more passes in the opposition half than anyone else in the post season, the naked eye tells us that he looks more likely than anyone to find a key through ball, to spark something from nothing, to run past defenders. There's every chance of him ending up as MVP in the MLS Cup.

And then there's Clint Dempsey: Seattle won the trophy last year without him, and that has played on his mind. His MLS legacy will be defined on Saturday night, and while he has strolled through the Play-Offs, casually dismissing Vancouver along the way, he still has more quality than most, and certainly a better instinct in front of goal than anyone who'll be on the field on Saturday. These things shouldn't come down to narrative, but his is persuasive.

So where are we in terms of bets? It's very hard to see this game being high-scoring, and Seattle certainly won't want that. They crushed TFC last year and stopped them from playing, and I believe that they'll do so again. You'll read much about the extent to which they'll miss Ozzie Alonso in the midfield, but his legs have looked shaky all season, and Gustav Svensson has been an excellent replacement.

Svensson, along with Marshall and Torres, will allow Seattle to keep it tight, Toronto will get frustrated in front of their home fans, and I can see a way that a fresher Seattle give TFC more problems than either NYCFC or Columbus managed. Remember, NYCFC won here, and Seattle are an infinitely better team than them.

Seattle are available at around 5.00 to win the game in normal time, and at 2.90 to win the MLS Cup, which leaves extra time and penalties in our favour. I'm not against either bet, but I think that TFC are fading, and Seattle are coming strong at just the right time. I'm happy to back them to go one better than they did last season, and get the job done in 90 minutes. If you want to back Under 2.5 Goals at 1.90, that also looks a solid proposition.

Recommended Bet
Back Seattle Sounders to beat TFC in 90 minutes @ 5.00