AFL Preview: Hawks v Bulldogs

Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs
Friday 7:50pm at Etihad Stadium

The Bulldogs’ hopes of returning to the finals are clinging by a thread, needing a win over Hawthorn and a lot of results to go their way.

FormHawthorn enter this off a shock loss to Carlton and stuck in 12^th position. The Hawks rank 15^th in scoring and 14^th in defence. Hawthorn have won three of their last six. Hawthorn have been kept to 72 or less in three of their last four games. The Hawks lost their only game at Etihad this year.

The Western Bulldogs have lost their last two to GWS and Port Adelaide and as a result have fallen to 11^th on the ladder with their 11-10 record. They rank eighth in defence but a lowly 14^th in scoring. The Bulldogs have conceded at least 89 in their last four.

Stats That Matter

• The Hawks had won eight straight against the Bulldogs before the Dogs’ famous semi final win last year
• The Bulldogs have covered the last two meetings with the Hawks
• The Hawks are 7-10 ATS at Etihad since 2012, covering just 1 of their last 5
• The Bulldogs have covered just 4 of their last 16 at Etihad
• The Bulldogs are 13-20 ATS at Etihad as a favourite with a 20-13 under record
• The Bulldogs are 13-9 ATS in Melbourne when favoured by under three goals
• The Hawks are 10-4 ATS with a 9-5 under record as an outsider in Melbourne
• The under is 28-16 in Bulldogs night games
• Hawthorn have gone under in six straight night games

Betting Data2017 Line: Hawthorn 10-11, Western Bulldogs 7-14
2017 Over-Under: Hawthorn 6-15, Western Bulldogs 8-13

What To ExpectBoth these teams are major under teams with some big under angles at play here. Both are strong under teams at night while the Bulldogs are a big under team when favoured at Etihad. Hard to see this game reaching any real flow.

How It’s Shaping UpHawthorn by 11

Recommended Bet
Under 185.5 ($1.90)

Player MarketsTom Mitchell posted 143 last week and has hit the 130 mark five times in his last eight games.

Recommended Bet
Tom Mitchell 130+ Fantasy Points ($1.90)