AFL Preview: Swans v Blues

Sydney v Carlton
Saturday 4:35pm at SCG

Sydney are locked in a neck-and-neck battle with Port Adelaide for fifth place – and potentially fourth – so will be going hard against a plucky Carlton team that continues to fight.

FormSydney are sixth on the ladder with a 13-8 record. The Swans have won 13 of their last 15 and enter this off a win over minor premiers Adelaide in Adelaide. Sydney have not conceded more than 85 points in their last 15 games and have the best defence in AFL.

Carlton had lost eight straight before upsetting Hawthorn last week. The Blues have topped 83 points just once since Round 7. The Blues have just one loss of 30 points since Round 10. The Blues are 15^th on the ladder with a 6-15 record. Carlton have the worst attack in the AFL.

Stats That Matter

• Sydney had won seven straight against Carlton before the Blues upset the Swans early in the season
• Carlton have covered 3 of the last 4 against Sydney
• The over has hit in 3 of the last 4 Swans-Blues games
• Sydney are 30-24 ATS at the SCG with three straight covers
• The Swans are 10-4 ATS as a favourite of 40 or more at the SCG with a 9-5 over record
• Carlton have covered just 5 of their last 14 interstate
• Carlton are 7-4 ATS getting a start of 40 or more since 2012
• Teams getting 40 or more off a win cover at just 46%

Betting Data2017 Line: Sydney 12-9, Carlton 13-8
2017 Over-Under: Sydney 9-12, Carlton 9-12

What To ExpectIt’s impossible to go past Sydney here despite the plucky nature of the Blues. Sydney cover big starts at will at the SCG while Carlton have not been particularly strong interstate and teams getting a big start off a win have a poor cover rate.

How It’s Shaping UpSydney by 60

Recommended Bet
Sydney -50.5 ($1.90)

Player MarketsSam Docherty has hit 120-plus in 8 of his last 12 and has been a fantasy machine.

Recommended Bet
Sam Docherty 120+ Fantasy Points ($1.65)